First of all, let me warn the reader that, although I usually try to leave the ending of books I read out of my reviews in order to avoid "giving it away", this time around I made an exception. So if you haven't yet read Ray Bradbury's novel Farewell Summer and are thinking of doing so, you might want to put off reading this article until afterward...
Back when I was in high school, I read Ray Bradbury's short novel Dandelion Wine. For some reason, the paperback book cover depicted it as some kind of scary science fiction/horror story. Nothing could be further from the truth: it was a nostalgic journey by Bradbury back to his childhood days, about a boy like himself growing up in a small Illinois town back in the late 1920's. To this day I regard it as one of my favorites. Dandelion Wine was published in 1957, and a sequel, titled Farewell Summer, came out in 2006. In it, the protagonist, Douglas Spaulding, has aged a few years and is now 14. His younger brother, Tom, is 12. The two, along with their buddies, are waging "war" against the old people, who they suspect of never having never been young and of conspiring against the children. So, in this "war" of theirs, they do foolish things like steal the chess pieces which Douglas says the elderly are using to control them, as well as break the town clock in order to keep time from making them older. The elderly folk in town are largely unaware of the kids' concerns...except for Quartermain, who thinks that Douglas murdered his elderly hypochondriac friend by shooting a cap gun at him (causing a heart attack) and was trying to kill him by running over him with his bicycle. Quartermain, after open hostility and suspicion toward Douglas and his friends, eventually decides to try a different tactic and be nice to them. As the book draws to an end, he realizes that, never having married or had children of his own, he has missed out and forgotten what it is like to be young like the boys. Finally, in an enigmatic twist at the book's end, Bradbury implies that there is a mysterious "spirit" of sexuality that the outgoing generation transfers to the emerging one. I found this part at the end to be somewhat weird...and ultimately hilarious. I think a lot of that was in the wording Bradbury used. Another, rather serious flaw I saw in the book was how he made children in the 12-14 age range think and speak more like 6-8 year olds...
If you have read Dandelion Wine, which to me is a complete story in itself, and think that you're going to get the same quality story in Farewell Summer, be forewarned: it isn't. Instead, it is a more philosophical discussion on aging, generation gaps, and the passing on of the "torch of life", so to speak, from one generation to another. Not a bad topic for discussion, but in my opinion Bradbury went about it in the most annoying way possible. Then again, you may think differently if you read it...
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Gators' "Swamp" a Nemesis for Home Team
It used to be that playing football games at the University of Florida's home Ben Hill Griffin stadium, nicknamed "The Swamp", was an almost insurmountable obstacle for the visiting team. Now it seems that the home team is having issues with it. In the Gators' last four games, one was on the road (Florida win, 34-10), one was at a neutral site (Florida win, 38-20), and two were at home (both Florida losses, 42-13 and today's overtime loss to South Carolina, 23-20). And it's not a matter of opposing teams coming in here and playing over their heads: their play, if anything, has been unimpressive. Instead, it's been Florida that has stumbled and faltered with turnovers, penalties, and disastrous lapses in special teams play. To me, that's a sign of slipshod coaching...
I wrote a couple of days ago that Florida still had a shot at the SEC title...now they're left just trying to finish with a winning season and a bowl invitation. To accomplish this, they only need to win over their second small-college "pushover" opponent, which is their next scheduled game. But a couple of points here: (1) two years ago the Gators very nearly lost their late season "easy" game and last year they did lose it...and (2) the upcoming game next Saturday against Eastern Kentucky is being played in "The Swamp". Maybe they can reschedule it to take place somewhere else...
I wrote a couple of days ago that Florida still had a shot at the SEC title...now they're left just trying to finish with a winning season and a bowl invitation. To accomplish this, they only need to win over their second small-college "pushover" opponent, which is their next scheduled game. But a couple of points here: (1) two years ago the Gators very nearly lost their late season "easy" game and last year they did lose it...and (2) the upcoming game next Saturday against Eastern Kentucky is being played in "The Swamp". Maybe they can reschedule it to take place somewhere else...
Sleep, Saturday Starbucks, Running
Last night, after sleeping for much of the day after I finally arrived home around eight in the morning, following a full work week, I had planned to devote much of that evening to assorted projects...including some running. Instead, I passed out and slept on into Saturday morning, having spent most of Friday after work in an unconscious state. I have more than once heard it said that you can't make up for sleep deficits by sleeping for long stretches, but those who maintain that viewpoint obviously never met me. I feel much, much better now and know that sometimes my body knows better and will wisely pull that "off" switch as soon as it realizes that I am safe and sound, off the road and in my home.
Now I'm enjoying my weekly late Saturday morning visit to my local Magnolia Parke Starbucks. This is apparently the "happening" place in town, as the line of customers is going outside the shop, and every seat is taken up...except the shaded outdoor ones on this cold November morning. It reminds me of our Midtown Manhattan visit back in '10 when everything was wall-to-wall people, with the only thing missing being the curb-to-curb yellow taxicabs (and, oh yeah, those monstrous skyscrapers blotting out the sky)...
As I had written on this blog a few days ago, I had been seriously considering entering the St. Augustine Half-Marathon, which is scheduled for tomorrow morning. But there were factors that ultimately made me decide to delay my reentry into "half-marathoning": I would have had to get up around three in the morning and drive out there, run the race, stand around for an hour or two for the awards ceremony (if the posted results showed me eligible for one), and then drive back to Gainesville, all tired and sore. Add to that the steep entry fees charged for these races ($85 if registered online or $100 on race day) and I decided that this would have to wait until another day. Instead, yesterday, during my brief interlude of consciousness between long sleeps, I went out to my Lloyd Clarke Sports store on 13th Street (US 441) and signed up for the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Trot 10K (6.2 miles) Race that will be held here in town on the grounds of Tacachale, an institution for the developmentally disabled. The price tag for entering? Just $25, and only $15 had I not wanted a tee-shirt. Now, that's much, much better...
Now I'm enjoying my weekly late Saturday morning visit to my local Magnolia Parke Starbucks. This is apparently the "happening" place in town, as the line of customers is going outside the shop, and every seat is taken up...except the shaded outdoor ones on this cold November morning. It reminds me of our Midtown Manhattan visit back in '10 when everything was wall-to-wall people, with the only thing missing being the curb-to-curb yellow taxicabs (and, oh yeah, those monstrous skyscrapers blotting out the sky)...
As I had written on this blog a few days ago, I had been seriously considering entering the St. Augustine Half-Marathon, which is scheduled for tomorrow morning. But there were factors that ultimately made me decide to delay my reentry into "half-marathoning": I would have had to get up around three in the morning and drive out there, run the race, stand around for an hour or two for the awards ceremony (if the posted results showed me eligible for one), and then drive back to Gainesville, all tired and sore. Add to that the steep entry fees charged for these races ($85 if registered online or $100 on race day) and I decided that this would have to wait until another day. Instead, yesterday, during my brief interlude of consciousness between long sleeps, I went out to my Lloyd Clarke Sports store on 13th Street (US 441) and signed up for the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Trot 10K (6.2 miles) Race that will be held here in town on the grounds of Tacachale, an institution for the developmentally disabled. The price tag for entering? Just $25, and only $15 had I not wanted a tee-shirt. Now, that's much, much better...
Friday, November 14, 2014
Recently Read Spencer Johnson's Book, Titled Who Moved My Cheese?
There's a little book out there, first published in 1998, that big corporations like Exxon, General Motors, Goodyear, Kodak, and the like are embracing and distributing among its employees to read: Who Moved My Cheese?, by Spencer Johnson. Johnson also co-wrote, along with Kenneth Blanchard, the famous book The One Minute Manager. Although the inside jacket of the hardcover copy of Who Moved My Cheese? states the price at a hefty $19.95, the book itself is only 94 pages long...with large print.
Melissa had read it and liked the message, so one evening recently she handed her copy to me to see what I thought of it. I put it to the side (immediately engrossed at the time with a Mexican soccer match on TV), thinking of coming back to it on some future date. But later on, around midnight, I reached over, picked it up, and breezed through it. The message contained in it focuses on a childish, childlike story of two mice and two mice-sized people in a maze looking for cheese and how the attitudes of each one affect its chances of success as change comes along and challenges them each to adapt in order to keeping getting their cheese. Each of the mice reacts instinctively when one (named Sniff) discovers the supply they had initially found by running through the maze to be dwindling (through consumption) and the other (Scurry) immediately sets back off in the maze to look for more. The two people both linger about the old cheese as it gradually disappears and ponder what to do about it. One is stubborn and opposed to change and stays put, refusing to go anywhere because this is his territory, by gosh, and it's his cheese that's he's entitled to...and more should be brought here for him. The other person initially goes along with Hem's resistance to change, but eventually reasons out what the mice knew instinctively: more cheese probably isn't going to come soon, and survival dictates action in the form of following the mice down the maze in pursuit of more cheese. As Haw, the wise human, leaves behind Hem, the stubborn one, in his stagnation, he discovers some wise principles during his quest...which the book presents every few pages (e.g. "If you do not move, you can become extinct", "Noticing small changes early helps you adapt to the bigger changes that are to come.") Eventually, Haw finds a wealth of cheese (as do the mice) and returns to tell Hem about it...but his erstwhile companion still refuses to budge.
Who Moved My Cheese? is so beloved by big corporations for an obvious reasons: they want to institute a large paradigm shift in their work force away from tradition and community and toward the flexibility pertaining to future job assignments and locations that the company demands. Of course, the work force can go one step further and say that, if a particular company they are working for is not giving them the treatment they had been enjoying (i.e. "the cheese is dwindling"), they can go look for better work ("get back in the maze"). Still, the lesson here is a bit unsettling: the times we live in, as Alvin Toffler expressed in his decades-old book Future Shock, are accelerating us into ever-increasing demands for change while depriving us of the security of a stable job and home community.
Another aspect I noticed in this book is that all four characters are in agreement about what they all want the most, which is "cheese". I'm assuming from this is that "cheese" is simply a simplified allegory of the basics for survival, like food, shelter, clothing, and medical care. The implication that we are all going to have to struggle and scurry around continually for the remainder of our pathetic little lives just to "survive", though, is not a message that I feel marks an enlightened, civilized society...but it is the essence instead of an unregulated, wild-west-type free market capitalism that rejects any notion of safety nets provided by society in the form of government programs. No wonder the big corporations love this book. That having been said, though, I have to look at things from my own perspective as an individual person, just as other readers need to do as well. And the question is not necessarily how things should be, but rather how things really are (for better or for worse)...and from this realization, what's the best course of action for me to take...
Melissa had read it and liked the message, so one evening recently she handed her copy to me to see what I thought of it. I put it to the side (immediately engrossed at the time with a Mexican soccer match on TV), thinking of coming back to it on some future date. But later on, around midnight, I reached over, picked it up, and breezed through it. The message contained in it focuses on a childish, childlike story of two mice and two mice-sized people in a maze looking for cheese and how the attitudes of each one affect its chances of success as change comes along and challenges them each to adapt in order to keeping getting their cheese. Each of the mice reacts instinctively when one (named Sniff) discovers the supply they had initially found by running through the maze to be dwindling (through consumption) and the other (Scurry) immediately sets back off in the maze to look for more. The two people both linger about the old cheese as it gradually disappears and ponder what to do about it. One is stubborn and opposed to change and stays put, refusing to go anywhere because this is his territory, by gosh, and it's his cheese that's he's entitled to...and more should be brought here for him. The other person initially goes along with Hem's resistance to change, but eventually reasons out what the mice knew instinctively: more cheese probably isn't going to come soon, and survival dictates action in the form of following the mice down the maze in pursuit of more cheese. As Haw, the wise human, leaves behind Hem, the stubborn one, in his stagnation, he discovers some wise principles during his quest...which the book presents every few pages (e.g. "If you do not move, you can become extinct", "Noticing small changes early helps you adapt to the bigger changes that are to come.") Eventually, Haw finds a wealth of cheese (as do the mice) and returns to tell Hem about it...but his erstwhile companion still refuses to budge.
Who Moved My Cheese? is so beloved by big corporations for an obvious reasons: they want to institute a large paradigm shift in their work force away from tradition and community and toward the flexibility pertaining to future job assignments and locations that the company demands. Of course, the work force can go one step further and say that, if a particular company they are working for is not giving them the treatment they had been enjoying (i.e. "the cheese is dwindling"), they can go look for better work ("get back in the maze"). Still, the lesson here is a bit unsettling: the times we live in, as Alvin Toffler expressed in his decades-old book Future Shock, are accelerating us into ever-increasing demands for change while depriving us of the security of a stable job and home community.
Another aspect I noticed in this book is that all four characters are in agreement about what they all want the most, which is "cheese". I'm assuming from this is that "cheese" is simply a simplified allegory of the basics for survival, like food, shelter, clothing, and medical care. The implication that we are all going to have to struggle and scurry around continually for the remainder of our pathetic little lives just to "survive", though, is not a message that I feel marks an enlightened, civilized society...but it is the essence instead of an unregulated, wild-west-type free market capitalism that rejects any notion of safety nets provided by society in the form of government programs. No wonder the big corporations love this book. That having been said, though, I have to look at things from my own perspective as an individual person, just as other readers need to do as well. And the question is not necessarily how things should be, but rather how things really are (for better or for worse)...and from this realization, what's the best course of action for me to take...
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Football: Florida Gators Still in SEC Title Hunt
I'd better get this written before Saturday, because on that day this article's message may be a moot point. But the fact remains...at this late point in the season approaching mid-November...that the University of Florida football team, incredibly, is still in the running to win the prestigious Southeastern Conference championship, despite having three losses. But their win over Georgia three weeks ago gives them the tiebreaker if the two end up with same conference win-loss records. And in a three-way tie with the Bulldogs and Missouri, Florida would prevail as long as the Tigers lose their upcoming game at Tennessee...a distinct possibility. So right now, in terms of conference records, Missouri is 4-1, Georgia is 5-2, and Florida is 4-3. This Saturday, if higher-ranked Auburn wins against Georgia and Florida beats South Carolina, the two East Division contenders will finish their conference schedule with 5-3 records. That would leave Missouri, who plays Texas A&M on the road Saturday, Tennessee in Knoxville the following week, and then closes at home against Arkansas. They could well lose all three games, although as far as Florida's title hopes are concerned they need only lose to Tennessee and to either Texas A&M or Arkansas.
If all this happens...and it very well could...Florida would be going to Atlanta to play the West Division winner, which at this point looks like either Mississippi State or Alabama (the two play each other this Saturday). Naturally, if the Gators went on to a big upset victory in this speculative title game, they still wouldn't be in contention for the national championship playoffs. But for head coach Will Muschamp, just getting to the title game would be a great turnaround from the desperate position he was in just a few weeks ago after losing a close game to LSU and being humiliated by Missouri in Florida's homecoming game...
If all this happens...and it very well could...Florida would be going to Atlanta to play the West Division winner, which at this point looks like either Mississippi State or Alabama (the two play each other this Saturday). Naturally, if the Gators went on to a big upset victory in this speculative title game, they still wouldn't be in contention for the national championship playoffs. But for head coach Will Muschamp, just getting to the title game would be a great turnaround from the desperate position he was in just a few weeks ago after losing a close game to LSU and being humiliated by Missouri in Florida's homecoming game...
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Just Finished Reading Brandon Sanderson's The Alloy of Law
I recently completed fantasy writer Brandon Sanderson's Mistborn trilogy...a series that I liked a lot and which ends as trilogies should end: "conclusively". Yet, Sanderson has now seen fit to go back to this fantasy world of mist and allomancers (people with the inherited ability to burn metals that give them temporary superhuman powers). Set a few centuries after the the original series, the world has changed. It is now becoming more and more technologically advanced, and the original fantasy format is now changing to one more of a science fiction/alternate reality nature, with a remarkable similarity at times to Stephen King's celebrated Dark Tower series (especially regarding gunslinging and train riding). As a matter of fact, the protagonists Wax (Waxillium Ladrian) and his sidekick Wayne are sharp-shooting lawmen in a wild west scenario. The Alloy of Law centers on Wax's developing worldview as he comes to grip that Miles, one of his fellow lawmen, has turned outlaw and is leading a popular revolt. However, there seems to be a mystery nobleman behind the scenes manipulating Miles. Also thrown into the mix of the story are love interests for Wax: Lessie, Marasi, and Steris. The story about Lessie really reminds me of The Dark Tower...especially book number four. As it turns out, not only is Wax an excellent shooter, but he, along with Wayne, Miles, and Marasi are all allomancers who possess special abilities to burn certain metals. The story progresses to a showdown between Wax and Miles...guess who wins? Hint: the next book is due out in a few months!
I have to admit that I didn't particularly enjoy The Alloy of Law as much as Sanderson's masterfully conceived and written first trilogy. There is no special, new world here to discover...just variations of the old, which has evolved in accordance with the way that trilogy's final volume, The Hero of Ages, ended. Still, this book was an interesting, fun story that often has more in common with the western genre of fiction than fantasy. Well, western combined with sci fi, like, as I said before, The Dark Tower. Or even The Wild, Wild, West...
I have to admit that I didn't particularly enjoy The Alloy of Law as much as Sanderson's masterfully conceived and written first trilogy. There is no special, new world here to discover...just variations of the old, which has evolved in accordance with the way that trilogy's final volume, The Hero of Ages, ended. Still, this book was an interesting, fun story that often has more in common with the western genre of fiction than fantasy. Well, western combined with sci fi, like, as I said before, The Dark Tower. Or even The Wild, Wild, West...
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Yes to Movie and TV Episode Reruns, No to Sports Reruns
I have a tendency to watch my favorite TV shows and movies over and over again, enough though I thoroughly know their outcomes and can often recite the dialogue word-for-word just before it is spoken. But when it comes to watching sporting events, even those that feature my favorite teams or solo athletes, I dislike reruns and avoid them with a passion. The only exception to this is if a rerun of a game is rebroadcast and I don't yet know the outcome. Then it's like I'm watching it live. Only one problem with that, though, and its a frustratingly recurring one...
I'll be on a channel showing such a rebroadcast, say, for example, of the English Premier League of soccer, with "my" team Arsenal playing in a game from the previous weekend that I haven't yet seen, and I'll sit down to watch it. Everything will be fine for a few minutes, when suddenly the little scrolling "information" line at the bottom of the screen will start displaying final scores...and the final score of the game I've begun watching will prominently be shown! I've seen this happen too many times and wonder why they don't just withhold the score of the one game they are showing...they can show still all the other final scores, for all the difference that makes.
Another gripe I have with sports reruns is that there is almost always enough going on that they don't have to keep showing the same game again. I find this especially annoying when I'm on the Univision Deportes (Spanish language sports) channel and watch a live broadcast of one of Mexico's top-tier Liga MX soccer league games...say, pitting Pumas against Tigres. I watch the game, enjoy it, and a few days later am ready to watch another soccer match on Univision Deportes...but find that they are showing a rerun of that same Pumas-Tigres contest. Why not show a different game...it doesn't even have to be from Liga MX. They could show a lower Mexican league game in that time slot...or even one from some other country's soccer league, for that matter.
It isn't just a "soccer" phenomenon, these sports reruns. I regularly scan through the upcoming sports broadcasts on the many channels I get and often run across football, baseball, and basketball games that weren't just played recently, but rather months or even years earlier. I don't get it with these reruns, but then again I imagine some people wouldn't get it about my own absorption with reruns of my favorite movie and TV episodes. To each his own, I suppose...
I'll be on a channel showing such a rebroadcast, say, for example, of the English Premier League of soccer, with "my" team Arsenal playing in a game from the previous weekend that I haven't yet seen, and I'll sit down to watch it. Everything will be fine for a few minutes, when suddenly the little scrolling "information" line at the bottom of the screen will start displaying final scores...and the final score of the game I've begun watching will prominently be shown! I've seen this happen too many times and wonder why they don't just withhold the score of the one game they are showing...they can show still all the other final scores, for all the difference that makes.
Another gripe I have with sports reruns is that there is almost always enough going on that they don't have to keep showing the same game again. I find this especially annoying when I'm on the Univision Deportes (Spanish language sports) channel and watch a live broadcast of one of Mexico's top-tier Liga MX soccer league games...say, pitting Pumas against Tigres. I watch the game, enjoy it, and a few days later am ready to watch another soccer match on Univision Deportes...but find that they are showing a rerun of that same Pumas-Tigres contest. Why not show a different game...it doesn't even have to be from Liga MX. They could show a lower Mexican league game in that time slot...or even one from some other country's soccer league, for that matter.
It isn't just a "soccer" phenomenon, these sports reruns. I regularly scan through the upcoming sports broadcasts on the many channels I get and often run across football, baseball, and basketball games that weren't just played recently, but rather months or even years earlier. I don't get it with these reruns, but then again I imagine some people wouldn't get it about my own absorption with reruns of my favorite movie and TV episodes. To each his own, I suppose...
Disparate Framing of Political Debate on Sensitive Issues
When I hear various political issues brought up in the media, the two main opposing sides of the debate will usually frame it in entirely different ways. Often the two sides will engage in a verbal dance of sorts, with neither side coming to grips with what the other is actually saying. One such recurring pattern to political debates is what I call the "rights vs. funding" argument. Take an issue in which one side, usually on the political left (but not always), is pushing for what it perceives as a basic right to be promoted and recognized by society and law. Without necessarily attacking the issue head-on, I often see the opponents of such efforts (usually on the political right) instead attacking the notion that, once a "right" has been established, then the party whose "right" needs to be respected has the "right" to expect others in society to subsidize their exercise of it...through government mandates and taxation. This is especially true regarding anything that falls under the umbrella of "medical" or "health" care. If you have a certain "right" that involves going to the doctor or pharmacy, then for some reason everyone in society is now obligated to collectively pay for your exercise of said "right", even if what you are doing is an elective choice and not medically necessary. From what I see, the main justification for the argument of government (and, ultimately, the taxpayer) stepping in to pay is that by not doing so, those in society who don't have enough money are in a disadvantageous position and that this makes things unfair...so we all have to pitch in.
So with issues like abortion or birth control, the left will argue about the right of people, especially women, to be able to freely make reproductive choices in their lives...which they say is none of the government's business, much less anyone else. At the same time, the right will counter-argue that just because someone has a choice, that doesn't give them the right to make everyone else pay for it through the government.
Naturally, there are some very serious ethical, moral, and religious issues concerning abortion and birth control. Those supporting choice and open access to birth control will argue that it is a matter of privacy and others should mind their own business while at the same time use the "inequality" issue to argue that the very same people who are supposed to mind their own business and respect their private choices have to fund those choices. But the left will argue about restrictive laws and the closing of abortion clinics while the right will argue about making people pay through the government for what many of them see as the immoral behavior of others.
I see a similar pattern of argumentation when it comes to the issue of illegal immigration. Proponents of the more liberal reform measures will argue that this is both a human and civil rights issue, while the more conservative viewpoints stress that others (namely, those already legally here) should not have to pay for what was obviously an elective, willful choice of people to flout the law and cross the border illegally. Here again is the disparate framing.
I think I'm going to keep a separate little journal along my side whenever I watch C-Span (showing US House of Representatives proceedings) or C-Span2 (showing the US Senate) during the next year. It will be interesting to see the different angles of the debates going on regarding various issues that the two sides take...along with their justifying arguments...and see how many of them focus on "rights" vs "funding"...
So with issues like abortion or birth control, the left will argue about the right of people, especially women, to be able to freely make reproductive choices in their lives...which they say is none of the government's business, much less anyone else. At the same time, the right will counter-argue that just because someone has a choice, that doesn't give them the right to make everyone else pay for it through the government.
Naturally, there are some very serious ethical, moral, and religious issues concerning abortion and birth control. Those supporting choice and open access to birth control will argue that it is a matter of privacy and others should mind their own business while at the same time use the "inequality" issue to argue that the very same people who are supposed to mind their own business and respect their private choices have to fund those choices. But the left will argue about restrictive laws and the closing of abortion clinics while the right will argue about making people pay through the government for what many of them see as the immoral behavior of others.
I see a similar pattern of argumentation when it comes to the issue of illegal immigration. Proponents of the more liberal reform measures will argue that this is both a human and civil rights issue, while the more conservative viewpoints stress that others (namely, those already legally here) should not have to pay for what was obviously an elective, willful choice of people to flout the law and cross the border illegally. Here again is the disparate framing.
I think I'm going to keep a separate little journal along my side whenever I watch C-Span (showing US House of Representatives proceedings) or C-Span2 (showing the US Senate) during the next year. It will be interesting to see the different angles of the debates going on regarding various issues that the two sides take...along with their justifying arguments...and see how many of them focus on "rights" vs "funding"...
Thursday, November 6, 2014
ESPN Analysts Display Lack of Probability Knowledge
Yesterday, on ESPN's Sport Center, they were going on about how badly the Los Angeles Lakers are doing so far this year, going winless in their first five games. One point they brought up was the upcoming schedule for them, with Kobe Bryant and company favored to lose each of their next eight games. There were actual percentage probabilities given for the Lakers to win each game, with the figures hovering around the 30th and 40th percentiles. Then one of the announcers got to the point of all this, which is that they may well lose all eight games and start the season off at 0-13. I beg to differ...
I didn't get all of the percentage predictions of each game (I wonder how they even arrived at them), but I think I'm being pretty conservative at saying they averaged about a 35% winning probability given for each game (it's probably higher). That means that the losing probability for each game is .65: for the Lakers to lose all eight of their next games, you would need to take that probability to the eighth power:
(,65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)=.032 , or 3.2%
In other words, even though the Lakers may be heavy underdogs in each of the next eight games with only a 35% average chance of winning each one, the probability of them losing ALL eight games is only 3.2%!
This is a glaring example of how otherwise very intelligent and educated people can falter the minute they go any distance in interpreting statistical data or anything dealing with probability. Will the Lakers actually lose their next eight games? Maybe, but it's not very likely given the input data...
I didn't get all of the percentage predictions of each game (I wonder how they even arrived at them), but I think I'm being pretty conservative at saying they averaged about a 35% winning probability given for each game (it's probably higher). That means that the losing probability for each game is .65: for the Lakers to lose all eight of their next games, you would need to take that probability to the eighth power:
(,65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)(.65)=.032 , or 3.2%
In other words, even though the Lakers may be heavy underdogs in each of the next eight games with only a 35% average chance of winning each one, the probability of them losing ALL eight games is only 3.2%!
This is a glaring example of how otherwise very intelligent and educated people can falter the minute they go any distance in interpreting statistical data or anything dealing with probability. Will the Lakers actually lose their next eight games? Maybe, but it's not very likely given the input data...
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Just Finished Reading Joseph Heller's Catch-22
You know you've written something significant when a defining principle expressed within it becomes enshrined as an integral part of the culture. That is what happened with Joseph Heller's 1961 novel Catch-22, which I understand was embraced by the anti-war counterculture movement of the late 1960s....not to mention becoming a standard high school/college English class reading assignment (groan) for millions. The title words "Catch-22" refer to a situation in which, no matter what one does, the result will be unsatisfactory...and it is the process itself that always leads to the undesired ending. It is a kind of "double-bind" that isn't necessarily personal in nature but often is embedded within official social institutions...like the Army of the author's World War II experiences.
During World War II, Heller served as a bomber pilot, based on a Mediterranean island off the coast of Italy. Likewise, his protagonist, John Yossarian, is such a pilot with many missions already under his belt. He is ready to go home, being certain that if he keeps flying missions over the enemy then he will be shot down and killed. And, for most of the Army pilots, he would already have had enough flights to qualify to go home. But his own commander, Colonel Cathcart, is trying to become a general by "volunteering" his men to more and more flights, continually raising the flight limit.
Yossarian visits the base's physician and tells him that he (Yossarian) is insane and therefore to please confirm this fact so that he can be sent back home. Dr. Daneeka responds by saying that, for anyone to be sent home, they must make the request for it...but the act of making such a request reveals that they are rational and not insane...and hence ineligible to be sent home. Yossarian then points out to Dr. D one of his fellow pilots and asks him whether this individual is insane. The good doctor responds by agreeing that he is crazy and eligible to go home...and he can request it. But the moment he does so, then he is committing a rational act and therefore is sane and ineligible. This is the book's main illustration of the principle of "Catch-22": an algorithm of interaction and logic that always leads to an unsatisfactory outcome, regardless what information is given initially. Certainly I've seen this process repeated in many, many situations over the course of my life: it's not just an "Army" thing...
Catch-22 is loaded with these types of circular arguments among its many characters. The ultimate effect is that everything is a farce, and it would be hilarious were it not for the fact that all were in the midst of a brutal war where people were being killed and injured. This story ruthlessly satirizes the command structure of the military, but could be applied to just about any group in society that depends on a hierarchy of authorities. It also exposes, with the character of mess hall officer Milo, who has become rich by developing an intricate trade system in the region (and even making enemy nations Germany and Italy "shareholders"), the two-faced nature of business...quite willing to work against the national interests if there is a profit to be made...and how they are continually given a "free pass" and not held accountable for their seemingly treasonous acts because they are engaged in the high and noble act of "free enterprise"...
I heartily recommend Catch-22 and, unlike an English teacher, won't be grading you on your reactions. It isn't long at all, but it does contain very much concentrated, intense dialogue...intense in the sense that there is a lot of reasoning going on here...albeit often very faulty reasoning. It is also very big on humor...my favorite character is the misunderstood Major Major Major Major (continually accused of looking too much like Henry Fonda), who pulls his own brand of "Catch-22" on others by refusing to see anyone unless he is out...
During World War II, Heller served as a bomber pilot, based on a Mediterranean island off the coast of Italy. Likewise, his protagonist, John Yossarian, is such a pilot with many missions already under his belt. He is ready to go home, being certain that if he keeps flying missions over the enemy then he will be shot down and killed. And, for most of the Army pilots, he would already have had enough flights to qualify to go home. But his own commander, Colonel Cathcart, is trying to become a general by "volunteering" his men to more and more flights, continually raising the flight limit.
Yossarian visits the base's physician and tells him that he (Yossarian) is insane and therefore to please confirm this fact so that he can be sent back home. Dr. Daneeka responds by saying that, for anyone to be sent home, they must make the request for it...but the act of making such a request reveals that they are rational and not insane...and hence ineligible to be sent home. Yossarian then points out to Dr. D one of his fellow pilots and asks him whether this individual is insane. The good doctor responds by agreeing that he is crazy and eligible to go home...and he can request it. But the moment he does so, then he is committing a rational act and therefore is sane and ineligible. This is the book's main illustration of the principle of "Catch-22": an algorithm of interaction and logic that always leads to an unsatisfactory outcome, regardless what information is given initially. Certainly I've seen this process repeated in many, many situations over the course of my life: it's not just an "Army" thing...
Catch-22 is loaded with these types of circular arguments among its many characters. The ultimate effect is that everything is a farce, and it would be hilarious were it not for the fact that all were in the midst of a brutal war where people were being killed and injured. This story ruthlessly satirizes the command structure of the military, but could be applied to just about any group in society that depends on a hierarchy of authorities. It also exposes, with the character of mess hall officer Milo, who has become rich by developing an intricate trade system in the region (and even making enemy nations Germany and Italy "shareholders"), the two-faced nature of business...quite willing to work against the national interests if there is a profit to be made...and how they are continually given a "free pass" and not held accountable for their seemingly treasonous acts because they are engaged in the high and noble act of "free enterprise"...
I heartily recommend Catch-22 and, unlike an English teacher, won't be grading you on your reactions. It isn't long at all, but it does contain very much concentrated, intense dialogue...intense in the sense that there is a lot of reasoning going on here...albeit often very faulty reasoning. It is also very big on humor...my favorite character is the misunderstood Major Major Major Major (continually accused of looking too much like Henry Fonda), who pulls his own brand of "Catch-22" on others by refusing to see anyone unless he is out...
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Voted Today, We'll See How It All Turns Out
After getting off from work this morning at 7:30, I drove over to my local precinct and voted on this Election Day. The voting room (unlike with recent low-turnout elections) had other voters besides myself, but there still weren't that many. Maybe now, with the polls open until 7 PM, there are more people casting their ballots. Anyway, I made my voting choices exactly the way I said I would a few days ago on this blog. I'm sure that some of my candidates and issues will win and some will lose, but regardless how the results tally up, I feel satisfied that I performed my civic duty and participated in this representative democracy of ours. After I got home, I was getting pretty sleepy, it being at the end of my "day" as it was, but I thought I might write a short blog article urging people to vote and post it on Facebook. But when I got on Facebook, I could easily see that there were already several postings from others exhorting people to vote. So I waited until now...but at this posting there's still time for you to vote if you're registered!
There is a lot of talk on TV about the close US Senate races (in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Kansas, and Georgia) being decided today, and how the Republicans might well be on their way to the first Senate majority they have had in eight years. It should be interesting watching the cable news channels tonight as the results start coming in. Unfortunately, regardless whether the Democrats or Republicans end up controlling the Senate, we'll probably still be stuck with their old leaders: Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell both need to step down and allow more persuasive and less antagonistic leaders to step up. But I seriously doubt that they will, seeing how much each one craves power...
There is a lot of talk on TV about the close US Senate races (in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Kansas, and Georgia) being decided today, and how the Republicans might well be on their way to the first Senate majority they have had in eight years. It should be interesting watching the cable news channels tonight as the results start coming in. Unfortunately, regardless whether the Democrats or Republicans end up controlling the Senate, we'll probably still be stuck with their old leaders: Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell both need to step down and allow more persuasive and less antagonistic leaders to step up. But I seriously doubt that they will, seeing how much each one craves power...
Monday, November 3, 2014
Reviewing Lev Grossman's Magician Series Before Starting Third Book
Many of the different series of books that I have read over recent years were already completely written by the time I began with them, making the process of covering them all relatively quick, with little time between books for me to forget characters or various aspects of the story line...Stephen Kind's Dark Tower series is an example for me. Then again, there are other series for which the author is still writing new books every few years or so...George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire is a case in point. For these series, I have experienced the need to review the previous books before I begin on the next, newly published installment. This also applies to the new (and presumably final) book in Lev Grossman's Magician series, the third book of which , titled The Magician's Land, has just come out and which I just got from Amazon on my Kindle.
I have just finished rereading the first book, titled The Magicians, and will start on book #2, The Magician King, tonight. This is a great fantasy series with characters of depth and refreshingly rooted in our "real" world instead of the typical make-believe continents with the obscure, hard-to-read maps and "epic", convoluted history. Not that Grossman hasn't inserted his own imaginary land into the story in Fillory (which he clearly and deliberately has fashioned after C.S. Lewis' Narnia), but the characters are based in our own world and time frame.
I'm glad I'm going through this review of the first two books in the series. Had I not, I know I would have been missing out on many details that will probably be referred back to in the new book...
I have just finished rereading the first book, titled The Magicians, and will start on book #2, The Magician King, tonight. This is a great fantasy series with characters of depth and refreshingly rooted in our "real" world instead of the typical make-believe continents with the obscure, hard-to-read maps and "epic", convoluted history. Not that Grossman hasn't inserted his own imaginary land into the story in Fillory (which he clearly and deliberately has fashioned after C.S. Lewis' Narnia), but the characters are based in our own world and time frame.
I'm glad I'm going through this review of the first two books in the series. Had I not, I know I would have been missing out on many details that will probably be referred back to in the new book...
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Looking Ahead at Upcoming Half-Marathon Races
I'm looking ahead at the half-marathon calendar before me, specifically for the races available for the next few months here in northern Florida. I see a few ahead that I might be interested in entering:
November 16 (Sunday): St. Augustine Half-Marathon
November 30 (Sunday): Space Coast Half-Marathon...in Cocoa
December 20 (Saturday evening): Starlight Half-Marathon...in Palm Coast
...and on New Years Day 2015, the annual John Walker Memorial Half-Marathon will take place here in Gainesville, on the Hawthorne Trail.
I think I did something like this preview on my blog last year, too, but didn't feel I was in good enough shape to run in a half-marathon at the time. Now I feel differently, but I still have this sense of inertia about stepping forward, registering, and then getting out there and running them. But I do have a good feeling about the November 16 and January 1 races...I'd love to run through St. Augustine!
Next January and February will feature the Ocala and FivePoints (Gainesville) Half-Marathons, respectively. I'd like to run in both of these races. Should I finish the winter half-marathon season down here in Florida will four more races to my "collection", that would be, at least for me, quite a feat. So let's see how I do in the next few weeks...
November 16 (Sunday): St. Augustine Half-Marathon
November 30 (Sunday): Space Coast Half-Marathon...in Cocoa
December 20 (Saturday evening): Starlight Half-Marathon...in Palm Coast
...and on New Years Day 2015, the annual John Walker Memorial Half-Marathon will take place here in Gainesville, on the Hawthorne Trail.
I think I did something like this preview on my blog last year, too, but didn't feel I was in good enough shape to run in a half-marathon at the time. Now I feel differently, but I still have this sense of inertia about stepping forward, registering, and then getting out there and running them. But I do have a good feeling about the November 16 and January 1 races...I'd love to run through St. Augustine!
Next January and February will feature the Ocala and FivePoints (Gainesville) Half-Marathons, respectively. I'd like to run in both of these races. Should I finish the winter half-marathon season down here in Florida will four more races to my "collection", that would be, at least for me, quite a feat. So let's see how I do in the next few weeks...
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Can't Figure Out This Game Called Football
Being an avid Southeastern Conference fan in college football, I was amazed three weeks ago how severely Georgia manhandled divisional rival Missouri 34-0. After all, the Bulldogs were operating without the services of their star runner Todd Gurley, who has been (and still is) under suspension for alleged violations of NCAA rules concerning autographs. If anything, the game was considered to be an evenly matched tossup, but the Tigers instead were humiliated. So Missouri's next opponent, the Florida Gators, must have been thinking that they weren't all that tough after all...besides, this was a homecoming game for Florida, in that difficult stadium for visitors known as "The Swamp". Instead, Missouri proceeded in turn to thoroughly humiliate the Gators, 42-13...a 29-point margin. Ouch. But who was Florida's next opponent? Oh-no, it's Georgia, the team that, by 34 points, beat the team that beat Florida by 29...that sounds like they're 63 points ahead of the Gators. This was going to be a blowout, right?
Well, that game finished early this evening, and it wasn't Georgia prevailing by nine touchdowns. Or even one. The final score? Florida 38, Georgia 20.
Go figure, if you can...
Well, that game finished early this evening, and it wasn't Georgia prevailing by nine touchdowns. Or even one. The final score? Florida 38, Georgia 20.
Go figure, if you can...
Friday, October 31, 2014
My October 2014 Running Report
In October, 2014, I ran a total of 310 miles, the most I have ever accomplished in a month. I did it not by amassing great, long single runs, but rather by running several times during the course of the day...with my longest single run for the entire month coming in at just 6.3 miles. But my longest "calendar day" running mileage was 26.7 miles, done over the span of October 4. I ran on every day of the month.
By running more often instead of going on very long runs, I am endeavoring to achieve a balance between training for longer distance races while taking care of my body to avoid injury. So far it's working, although I have yet to run in a race since my Five Points of Life Half-Marathon back in February, here in Gainesville. I had been considering the recently held half-marathon in Apalachicola, Florida, but because they insisted on race packet pickup the day before...no exceptions...I passed up on it. I could have made the drive over to the race and back, but I wasn't going to stay overnight at a hotel there, just because of their asinine policy...which was probably designed to make entrants stay overnight at one of their hotels! In November, I'll have several opportunities to run in different races and will try to get in at least a couple...
By running more often instead of going on very long runs, I am endeavoring to achieve a balance between training for longer distance races while taking care of my body to avoid injury. So far it's working, although I have yet to run in a race since my Five Points of Life Half-Marathon back in February, here in Gainesville. I had been considering the recently held half-marathon in Apalachicola, Florida, but because they insisted on race packet pickup the day before...no exceptions...I passed up on it. I could have made the drive over to the race and back, but I wasn't going to stay overnight at a hotel there, just because of their asinine policy...which was probably designed to make entrants stay overnight at one of their hotels! In November, I'll have several opportunities to run in different races and will try to get in at least a couple...
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Just Finished Reading Daniel Abraham's The Dragon's Path
Daniel Abraham is a prolific author of science fiction and fantasy stories who often collaborates with others...and likes to use pseudonyms. Although his ongoing fantasy series The Dagger and the Coin is a solo project published under his own name, Abraham has nonetheless been receiving much encouragement with it from his friend, George R.R. Martin, of A Song of Ice and Fire (Game of Thrones) fame. And as I have earlier written in another article, Abraham's series bears a remarkable resemblance to Martin's. For one, the characters all have within their personalities...even those being presented as "heroic" protagonists...a rather objectionable brutality. Also, there is a conflict going on in the central kingdom (with a weak king and serious questions about succession) between the protagonists, who want to suppress the common people and maintain strict authoritarian rule under the nobility, and the antagonists, who have allied themselves with the farmers and other commoners to push for more reforms. So as a reader I feel that the author is persuading me to take the "good guy" Dawson's side and oppose "bad guy" Issandrian...but I prefer the latter. Another "hero", Geder, is also extremely brutal and selfish...but he likes to read books, so I guess I'm supposed to like him, too!
In The Dragon's Path, the character Dawson reminds me of Martin's Ned Stark, Geder reminds me a bit of his Tyrion, and there is a subplot across the continent that features the characters Cithrin and Marcus. Cithrin is like a cross between Martin's Daenerys and Arya, and Marcus resembles Jorah Mormont in that both men are feeling a growing love toward a young woman they are protecting who has a sense of destiny (with Marcus it's Cithrin and with Lord Mormont it's Daenerys). There is also an extensive historical past with dragons ruling in both series, as well as an aggressive, strange religion that carries sinister foreboding as it spreads. In a departure from Martin, though, Abraham's human population is divided into several extremely distinct "races", some with scales, some with heavy fur, some with tusks, etc,. and an ongoing mystery as to why it is so divided...
The series name The Dagger and the Coin refers to the great dynamic conquering forces in this fantasy world (and our own, for that matter): war and finance...and seems to be engaged in the question of which of the two truly reigns supreme. In spite of the relative lack of innovation in The Dragon's Path, I like Daniel Abraham's writing and appreciate how he presents his characters, who already are memorable to me. I want to know what happens next after this book, and the author has obliged with three more installments in the series, with more to come...
In The Dragon's Path, the character Dawson reminds me of Martin's Ned Stark, Geder reminds me a bit of his Tyrion, and there is a subplot across the continent that features the characters Cithrin and Marcus. Cithrin is like a cross between Martin's Daenerys and Arya, and Marcus resembles Jorah Mormont in that both men are feeling a growing love toward a young woman they are protecting who has a sense of destiny (with Marcus it's Cithrin and with Lord Mormont it's Daenerys). There is also an extensive historical past with dragons ruling in both series, as well as an aggressive, strange religion that carries sinister foreboding as it spreads. In a departure from Martin, though, Abraham's human population is divided into several extremely distinct "races", some with scales, some with heavy fur, some with tusks, etc,. and an ongoing mystery as to why it is so divided...
The series name The Dagger and the Coin refers to the great dynamic conquering forces in this fantasy world (and our own, for that matter): war and finance...and seems to be engaged in the question of which of the two truly reigns supreme. In spite of the relative lack of innovation in The Dragon's Path, I like Daniel Abraham's writing and appreciate how he presents his characters, who already are memorable to me. I want to know what happens next after this book, and the author has obliged with three more installments in the series, with more to come...
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Early Outbreak Convinces Me to Get Flu Shot
Yesterday I decided I had put it off long enough already and got my annual flu shot. I usually don't get it until a little later in the year, but this year so far quite a few people have already come down with the flu...and my doctor has already told me that, due to a continuing medical condition, I need to get a shot each year. That's no guarantee that I won't come down with it, though: the last time I caught the flu, a little more than ten years ago, I had gotten a flu shot but to no avail. Still, the game here is to increase my odds...which also includes being careful to wash my hands often, especially before eating...and otherwise keeping my hands from my face.
You can choose to get all worried and excited about the Ebola virus and the latest news scoops about it. But while that's going on, the flu is quietly spreading through the population, debilitating many and even killing a few in the process. It is much more of an immediate health threat than Ebola...and it's also something you can take effective action to help prevent for yourself and loved ones...
You can choose to get all worried and excited about the Ebola virus and the latest news scoops about it. But while that's going on, the flu is quietly spreading through the population, debilitating many and even killing a few in the process. It is much more of an immediate health threat than Ebola...and it's also something you can take effective action to help prevent for yourself and loved ones...
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Just Finished Reading Tolstoy's Anna Karenina
I've just finished reading Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina, published in 1878 and considered in literary circles to be among the very best novels ever written. Its setting is primarily in Russia of that time period, specifically in St. Petersburg, Moscow, and the countryside around them. The main characters are of the noble class, still separated to a great degree from the peasantry and working class and with their own society and customs. Naturally, the chief protagonist is the title character, a young woman named Anna Karenina, who is suffering through a marriage to a man much older than her, and for whom she feels no love. Onto the scene strides young Count Vronsky, a free spirit with the habit of seeing women as potential conquests, and the two fall head over heels in love with each other...of course, placing her in a precarious situation with her marital infidelity. But instead of continuing their affair confidentially, Anna decides to openly reveal everything to Karenin, her husband...which turns out to be a critical mistake. For, it seems, extramarital affairs are quite commonplace among the Russian nobility...but the participants follow certain rules of discretion that serve to protect themselves with their marriages and social standing. Because of Anna's outspokenness, though, she instead suffers public disgrace from her affair. Vronsky wants to marry her, and eventually she also desires a divorce from her husband with the same aim...but by that time Karenin has changed his mind about granting her one. What happens next? I leave that to you, good reader, to discover for yourself...
Although Anna Karenina is the "official" main character in this story, I feel rather that a rural land-owning nobleman named Constantin Levin truly fits that role. I also believe that the author spoke his own philosophical beliefs and questions through this character. I had earlier written on this blog that I could find no character in Anna Karenina with whom I could empathize. Well, I did come to appreciate Levin, a character strongly reminiscent in his awkwardness regarding Russian noble society to Pierre, Tolstoy's protagonist in his earlier work War and Peace. Levin has his own love interest in young Kitty, who happens to be Anna's brother's niece (ultimately, it seems, everyone in nobility is related). One of the more humorous parts of the novel is when Levin, invited to participate in the government's nobility-run legislative assembly, finds himself completely baffled by the political process, stumbling through different proceedings without knowing what he is doing.
In Anna Karenina, Tolstoy explores in depth the feelings of his characters and their inner motivations for what they say and do. So this is a psychological novel of the first order. But also covered is the Russian society contemporary to Tolstoy's writing...not only the inner social dynamics of the nobility, but also the sometimes changing, sometimes stagnant relationship between that nobility and the "lower" classes, complete with the misunderstandings and mistrust separating them. And on still another, and very significant level, religion and God's role in people's lives are discussed through various characters...mainly from Levin himself at the story's end.
I don't know whether Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina is the best novel ever written, but I did enjoy it and recommend it. But as for my own preferences, I liked his War and Peace more...
Although Anna Karenina is the "official" main character in this story, I feel rather that a rural land-owning nobleman named Constantin Levin truly fits that role. I also believe that the author spoke his own philosophical beliefs and questions through this character. I had earlier written on this blog that I could find no character in Anna Karenina with whom I could empathize. Well, I did come to appreciate Levin, a character strongly reminiscent in his awkwardness regarding Russian noble society to Pierre, Tolstoy's protagonist in his earlier work War and Peace. Levin has his own love interest in young Kitty, who happens to be Anna's brother's niece (ultimately, it seems, everyone in nobility is related). One of the more humorous parts of the novel is when Levin, invited to participate in the government's nobility-run legislative assembly, finds himself completely baffled by the political process, stumbling through different proceedings without knowing what he is doing.
In Anna Karenina, Tolstoy explores in depth the feelings of his characters and their inner motivations for what they say and do. So this is a psychological novel of the first order. But also covered is the Russian society contemporary to Tolstoy's writing...not only the inner social dynamics of the nobility, but also the sometimes changing, sometimes stagnant relationship between that nobility and the "lower" classes, complete with the misunderstandings and mistrust separating them. And on still another, and very significant level, religion and God's role in people's lives are discussed through various characters...mainly from Levin himself at the story's end.
I don't know whether Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina is the best novel ever written, but I did enjoy it and recommend it. But as for my own preferences, I liked his War and Peace more...
Saturday, October 25, 2014
The 2014 General Election As I See It
The 2014 general election is in full swing here in Alachua County, Florida, with early voting now available. For me, I cast an early ballot in an election a few years ago but greatly prefer the election day ritual at my local precinct (which this year is on November 4). Besides, it gives me a chance to check up on what's going on at my precinct site, which just so happens to be the community senior recreational center (which I'll be eligible to use in less than two years). This year it's no high-glamour presidential election...just the governorship of Florida at stake, along with some state cabinet positions, a U.S. house race, a couple of county commission races, a county tax collector race, five district judge retention questions, three state constitutional amendments, an Alachua County referendum...and an Alachua County nonbinding straw ballot question. For me, that's plenty to vote on, but I predict that less than half of the eligible voters will cast their ballots this election...while a portion of the non-voters will complain that the Republican Party is trying to suppress the vote with their reasonable (to me) demand for adequate identification at the polling place.
However, my political alignment tends to fall on the Democratic side, so if you are one of those politically hysterical types who automatically equate the Democratic Party with evil and tyranny, you're welcome to stop reading now...and placidly continue on with your own conception of reality. But at this point I don't see any compelling reason to side with the Republicans in any of the races...especially in the contest for governor between incumbent Rick Scott and his immediate predecessor, Charlie Crist. After mudslinging at Crist in ad after ad for being a corrupt and flip-flopping politician while blaming him for the international recession that happened after the banking crisis of late 2008, Scott then had the nerve to put on an ad implying that he was above such mudslinging and that only Crist was showing attack ads. What hypocrisy. But none of this is why I'm planning to vote for Crist...I just feel he is a decent man (albeit, granted, a somewhat slick politician) who accepts that he would be the governor of ALL the people in Florida, not just those with his own narrow ideological perspective (which I feel is the case with Scott). That's not an endorsement from me, though, and others are encouraged to follow their own convictions (or hunches, if they aren't sure) about how they will vote.
In one of the county commission races, I was going to go for the Republican there, since on the surface he sounded as if he would make road repair a top priority. But actually, John Martin would rather hold back on needed repairs because he opposes a proposed sales surtax specifically earmarked for those projects (also on the ballot) and instead insist on doing everything within the budget as it is. While an admirable stand at first glance, it is an unrealistic one that is destined to further delay needed road work.
Regarding the state constitutional amendments...No.1 is for water and land conservation. On the surface it seems like a good idea, and I'm going for it. No.2 is to legalize medical marijuana use and production. I think this amendment is rather phony in that those supporting it the most are viewing it as a transition to the general legalization of pot (a transitional path that Colorado followed). And since I have my own suspicions about certain potential producers of the plant wanting to get an inside track on the industry when that general legalization does occur, I'm opposing this amendment on principle. Amendment No.3 gives the governor power to appoint vacancies to the judiciary. But unlike the advise and consent requirement for presidential appointments on the federal level of government, I see in this amendment no checks provided on whomever the governor may choose to appoint...so I'm voting "no" on this question, too.
As for the remaining two questions on the ballot, I'm going to "hold my nose" and vote for the proposed Alachua County surtax, because our roads are truly in a deplorable state here. And the straw ballot question is just political posturing about whether one would support a U.S. Constitutional Amendment only recognizing individual human beings as "persons" and not group entities such as corporations or labor unions...and that spending money is not an expression of free speech protected under the First Amendment. Implied in this argument is the notion that people are too stupid to filter through the myriad campaign ads that inundate them during the campaign season, many financed by corporate interests. My answer is that if they are that stupid, then they deserve the stupid government they end up electing: let us carefully avoid restricting our own precious freedom of association and the expressions that arise from them...
However, my political alignment tends to fall on the Democratic side, so if you are one of those politically hysterical types who automatically equate the Democratic Party with evil and tyranny, you're welcome to stop reading now...and placidly continue on with your own conception of reality. But at this point I don't see any compelling reason to side with the Republicans in any of the races...especially in the contest for governor between incumbent Rick Scott and his immediate predecessor, Charlie Crist. After mudslinging at Crist in ad after ad for being a corrupt and flip-flopping politician while blaming him for the international recession that happened after the banking crisis of late 2008, Scott then had the nerve to put on an ad implying that he was above such mudslinging and that only Crist was showing attack ads. What hypocrisy. But none of this is why I'm planning to vote for Crist...I just feel he is a decent man (albeit, granted, a somewhat slick politician) who accepts that he would be the governor of ALL the people in Florida, not just those with his own narrow ideological perspective (which I feel is the case with Scott). That's not an endorsement from me, though, and others are encouraged to follow their own convictions (or hunches, if they aren't sure) about how they will vote.
In one of the county commission races, I was going to go for the Republican there, since on the surface he sounded as if he would make road repair a top priority. But actually, John Martin would rather hold back on needed repairs because he opposes a proposed sales surtax specifically earmarked for those projects (also on the ballot) and instead insist on doing everything within the budget as it is. While an admirable stand at first glance, it is an unrealistic one that is destined to further delay needed road work.
Regarding the state constitutional amendments...No.1 is for water and land conservation. On the surface it seems like a good idea, and I'm going for it. No.2 is to legalize medical marijuana use and production. I think this amendment is rather phony in that those supporting it the most are viewing it as a transition to the general legalization of pot (a transitional path that Colorado followed). And since I have my own suspicions about certain potential producers of the plant wanting to get an inside track on the industry when that general legalization does occur, I'm opposing this amendment on principle. Amendment No.3 gives the governor power to appoint vacancies to the judiciary. But unlike the advise and consent requirement for presidential appointments on the federal level of government, I see in this amendment no checks provided on whomever the governor may choose to appoint...so I'm voting "no" on this question, too.
As for the remaining two questions on the ballot, I'm going to "hold my nose" and vote for the proposed Alachua County surtax, because our roads are truly in a deplorable state here. And the straw ballot question is just political posturing about whether one would support a U.S. Constitutional Amendment only recognizing individual human beings as "persons" and not group entities such as corporations or labor unions...and that spending money is not an expression of free speech protected under the First Amendment. Implied in this argument is the notion that people are too stupid to filter through the myriad campaign ads that inundate them during the campaign season, many financed by corporate interests. My answer is that if they are that stupid, then they deserve the stupid government they end up electing: let us carefully avoid restricting our own precious freedom of association and the expressions that arise from them...
Friday, October 24, 2014
Need Close Games in This Year's World Series
Major League Baseball's World Series continues tonight with a change of location to San Francisco, with it knotted up 1-1 between the Giants and the Kansas City Royals. I wonder, though... if the games continue to develop like the first two...whether anyone outside the two metropolitan areas involved will be interested. For 7-1 and 7-2 scores are not exactly the kinds of games that tend to rivet one's attention up to the very final out. And here's the paradox: the various playoff series that have led to this 2014 edition of the World Series have pretty much been blowouts...if you just look at the tally of games won and lost. But almost every game comprising those "blowouts" has been very close and decided by one or two runs, with many having to go into extra innings to decide. So, say instead of the 7-1 and 7-2 scores for the first two World Series games we had 4-3 and 5-4 scores. Even if the same team had won both games...even if that team had gone on to sweep the Series four games to none...it would have been much more entertaining viewing than what we've had so far.
I'm rooting for San Francisco in this Series, but it would disappoint me if they won the next three games with lopsided scores. I like those tight, tense games that bring in all the teams' extras and relief pitchers into the equation and can dramatically turn on just one pitch. Of course, if a team I care for more, like the Tampa Bay Rays or Miami Marlins, had been in it this year, I would have been very happy with them routing their opponent each and every game, damn the boredom...
I'm rooting for San Francisco in this Series, but it would disappoint me if they won the next three games with lopsided scores. I like those tight, tense games that bring in all the teams' extras and relief pitchers into the equation and can dramatically turn on just one pitch. Of course, if a team I care for more, like the Tampa Bay Rays or Miami Marlins, had been in it this year, I would have been very happy with them routing their opponent each and every game, damn the boredom...
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