Eyeing Tropics for Hurricane Threats

On this final day of September, we've been keeping an eye on the tropical disturbance developing just east of Florida and north of Cuba in the southern Bahamas.  The process has been pretty slow, but finally yesterday the weather big-shots got around to naming it as a tropical storm: Imelda.  Today Imelda intensified to minimal hurricane status, and after moving northward for several hours is now making an abrupt northeastern turn away from the mainland into the open seas of the Atlantic toward Bermuda, right behind its companion, Hurricane Humberto.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics we see no place of predicted storm development, which is important since I'm planning on traveling by ship through the Bahamas and Caribbean Sea during the first two weeks of October.  Let any potential storms wait until we're safely back home in port...

Subdued Hurricane Season So Far, But Keeping Eyes Open

This 2025 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't been meeting expectations...even with the more subdued predictions for storm numbers and intensity.  Here we are, now past the typical midpoint that signifies the peak days for tropical storm activity, and with only one tropical storm, Gabrielle, that is floundering out in the mid-Atlantic and only posing an indirect threat to Bermuda. Sometimes bad stuff happens later on, though, and I am keeping my eyes open during weather news segments for any new developments.  By October, the likelihood increases for tropical storms and hurricanes to originate in the western Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico.  These storms are far more likely to eventually threaten "my" north central Florida area...if they do materialize, that is.  This 2025 season, so far, has been a blessed bust...but there's still more time left.  Personally, I could do without the suspense of an approaching hurricane to my area, but since we're planning on cruising into the Caribbean during the first two weeks of next month, the notion of some potential storm "out there" doesn't exactly keep my mind at ease.  Nor does the provocative military buildup instigated in that area by our "stable genius" of a president, who thinks it's just hunky-dory to bomb to smithereens unarmed fishing vessels in international waters along with their passengers...

On This Labor Day Starting Off September

Welcome to the month of September on this Labor Day Monday.  The Weather Channel meteorologists seem to be enjoying going to pains to explain that today marks the beginning of the meteorological fall season while the astronomical fall begins on September 22nd.  I'm not sure how that affects my life, but it continued to be very warm and humid outside as I walked around the neighborhood earlier this afternoon. I'm not counting on any sustained cooling in my surrounding weather.  No, it's tropical storms and hurricanes I'm on the lookout against, and the "experts" don't seem to think that anything of substance will develop within the next week or so, although they say there is a "robust" tropical wave out there.  We've had a pretty light Atlantic hurricane season so far, with the only developed hurricane staying clear of land, far out in the Atlantic Ocean...may the rest follow this pattern.  Melissa and I would like our planned cruise into the Caribbean Sea in early October to go off without complications. Not only do I need to take the weather into consideration about this, but apparently our mentally ill, creepy drama-queen of a president seems to think it's a good idea to manufacture yet another crisis by amassing warships just off the Venezuelan coast to provoke armed conflict with that nation...we're scheduled to cruise to the nearby islands of Aruba and Curacao. You probably voted for the felon: what excuses are you making for him this time? In any event, there's a limit to what I have control over in my life...let me focus on today and what it may bring...

Keeping "Track" of Tropical Storm Erin

It looks as if this weekend the moment of truth will come out regarding what is destined to be Hurricane Erin, which is one of those Atlantic tropical storm systems that developed off the west African coast and traversed the high seas deep into our western hemisphere.  According to the projected various possible paths the storm could take, I'm not too concerned from my north-central Florida home location, but I'm not so sure I'd want to be on a cruise ship anytime in the near future that has the Bahamas and eastern Caribbean on its course.  My own cruise concern is projected for the first couple of weeks in October, when I'm afraid it might be a bit more touchy with the tropical storms during that period.  But we'll see. I'm guessing that Erin probably won't make landfall on the continent, but might threaten Bermuda and cause a lot of warnings about rip current along the Atlantic coast from Florida on northward. In any event, I guess this means we're finally in the middle of hurricane season.  Now that I'm retired and out of school for decades, I'm naturally hoping that they all stay away...

Start of 2025 Hurricane Season

Yesterday the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began, and the two main weather channels (The Weather Channel and FoxWeather) devoted much of their time to discussing this year's prospects regarding tropical storm systems and the damage that storms like Helene and Milton caused in 2024.  I remember as a kid in the 1960s getting a free hurricane plotting map that many stores...including Publix...offered.  Then I would eagerly wait for each day's newspaper (we got the Miami News)  to examine its (usually front-page) article about the status of ongoing tropical systems, usually with the accompanying maximum sustained winds and that all-important figure, its coordinates.  I'd duly plot out the new location and connect it to my previous plotting, making a gradual pathway that it was taking...I did this for years.  Nowadays, though, since you can pretty much check up on the different tropical storms online or on TV on a 24/7 basis, this painstaking plotting out of a hurricane's progress just isn't practiced anymore.  The last season I did this intentionally was in 1985 after Elena caused a scare in my Gainesville area after it abruptly shifted its path overnight to hover just off the coast at Cedar Key.  Now, of course, I can go back on Wikipedia and get a synopsis of each past season, along with a map showing the different named storms' trajectories.  For 2025, there will be no plotting in my house, but I'll keep in touch with the weather... 

New Tropical Storm Sara Named, In Western Caribbean

In keeping with my earlier declaration that I would keep up with named tropical storms in this 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season, I'm reporting today on the latest one, Sara.  It's just been named, after forming an identifiable circulation and developing sustained winds now at 40 mph in the far-western Caribbean Sea, just skirting the northern coast of Honduras, Sara is headed westward, destined to make landfall at the country of Belize and then on through the southeastern part of Mexico before emerging in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  There the various meteorological computer models have it strengthening and turning toward the northeast...that is, toward Florida.  Great, that's all we need, a fourth hurricane.  It's not all happening at once, though: it shouldn't be until early next week when we'll have some more definitive information on how strong Sara will get and where it will go... 

Rafael the Latest Storm in 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Rafael has been born in the western Caribbean and, this morning so far, carries 60 mph sustained winds as it strengthens into what possibly could be a Category Two hurricane after it enters the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.  That should concern anyone living near the Gulf Coast, but so far the predicted trajectory, a composite of numerous diverse meteorological projections, has it aimed toward the Louisiana coast.  Plus, the cooler waters in the northern Gulf should eventually weaken it.  Still, Rafael could be the source of a lot of rainfall toward the end of this week, even in Gainesville where I'm planning on entering a long-distance race on Sunday.  It seems this 2024 hurricane season that these storms seem bent on messing up my races: the sooner it ends the better... 

Possibility of Tropical Storm Activity Next Week

In keeping with my earlier plan to keep up to date with developing tropical weather disturbances this 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, I'm reporting only a potential so far out in the Caribbean and Atlantic just north of Hispaniola, a low pressure zone that different forecasting models predict will develop some time next week.  These range from having it attain hurricane strength and threatening Florida to it only becoming a depression and entering the Gulf of Mexico.  In any event, the more northern waters in my Gainesville latitude are much cooler now as we enter the month of November and should interfere with any intensification if any storm comes our way. Still, I'm not all that enthusiastic about having to follow yet another threatening tropical system...

Tired of 2024 Hurricane Season, Still Not Done

I've been happy during the past few days to be experiencing generally dryer and cooler weather conditions here in Gainesville...although that temperature has been climbing back up.  Unfortunately, I also experienced a sore throat the last couple of days...that seems to be abating at this writing late Thursday.  It looks as if...according to the Weather Channel...a new low pressure system may be gradually developing in the western Caribbean and could eventually head back over here, taking the same general path that Helene and Milton did earlier when both slammed into Florida as strong hurricanes. The "pattern", if you can call it that, is for the Weather Channel and Fox Weather to speak in loose, overly general terms for days on end regarding specific areas of concern until, one day, they suddenly go into "alarm" mode and proclaim a rapidly-intensifying hurricane with 24 hours, and naturally, headed my way! "Patty" would be the next named Atlantic tropical storm...I don't know about you, but I'm quite ready to put a close to this already-old and disruptive 2024 hurricane season.  The only blessing I can muster is that I have been living here in a zone of what they call "hostile winds" that have kept us from more direct hits.  May those hostile winds continue...

Nadine and Oscar Mark Dwindling Atlantic Hurricane Season

This morning we have the Weather Channel on the TV, and they were discussing...among other things...the current situation in the Tropics as the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final weeks.  The other day, at almost the same time and after many days of looking of two weak systems...one in the western Caribbean and the other north of Puerto Rico...they were both suddenly named tropical storms, Nadine and Oscar.  Nadine quickly landed in Central America at Belize and dumped its rains on that small country and further on in Mexico's eastern end.  Oscar briefly rapidly intensified in a Category One hurricane before hitting far eastern Cuba and weakened when hostile winds from the northwest (protecting us in Florida) tore into it, redirecting it away from us into the open Atlantic.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic potential tropical storm development is unlikely anytime soon.  That's okay with me: I and too many others have long grown tired of this tedious, destructive Atlantic season.  Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, Milton: no, that's way more than enough...

New Hurricane Milton Threatening Central Florida and Possibly Gainesville

Ever since Hurricane Helene passed through Florida and points north in late September...causing calamitous destruction and death, especially in North Carolina...the meteorologists have been pointed to a low-pressure area in Helene's general zone of origin in the western Caribbean.  The prognosis was always the same: 40% chance of development over a period of several days.  But a couple of days ago the message abruptly changed, as a Pacific tropical storm passed through Mexico into the far western Gulf of Mexico and formed the core of a dangerous new tropical disturbance.  It has since rapidly strengthened and been named Milton, at this writing a full-fledged hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.  Milton is predicted to reach Category 4 strength as it crosses the Gulf toward a rendezvous with the west coast of central Florida around Tampa.  Before hitting land, though, it is also expected to weaken a little.  But statewide we're already being saturated with much rain...more water in the ground is the last thing anyone needs.  Milton is expected to arrive on Wednesday and cut across the state, subjecting my Gainesville area once again to strong tropical storm winds and placing people and property in peril as well as almost certainly causing widespread power outages.  This storm is said to be smaller than Helene was...I guess I should be thankful for any good news...

Carolinas Suffering Calamity from Atlantic Storms

It's a sad time for the Carolinas, what with "PTC-8" slamming their eastern sides and remains of Hurricane Helene wiping out entire communities on the hilly/mountainous west, killing many and causing catastrophic damage.  And I see that they're talking about a new possible system forming in Helene's old spawning area of the western Caribbean.  After Debby gave us here in Gainesville a close call back in July, we'd had quite a lull in this Atlantic hurricane season, which had been predicted to be very active.  Now, after Helene we've had Isaac, Joyce and Kirk, all three eastern Atlantic storms posing danger to only maritime interests there.  Yet just the wrong combination of factors...as was the case with Helene...can cause a monumental disaster.  My own household only suffered a seven-hour power outage and we had a few fallen branches in our yard...no structural damage, thankfully...

Hurricane Helene's Brunt to Pass West of Gainesville This Evening

Hurricane Helene is passing by this evening, a near-miss to Gainesville...but a miss still the same.  Although schools, garbage pickup and different businesses are closing for either the whole day today or a part of it, my workplace at the post office is remaining open...at this writing I'll be off to work in an hour or so.  Although destined to miss the brunt of Helene's predicted Category Three winds at its landfall later today a few miles south of Tallahassee, we should still be under sustained tropical storm winds throughout the evening, eventually slackening during the wee early morning hours.  The rain level here shouldn't be all that bad...it's the wind and possible power outages that present the biggest concerns. Wishing you and yours safety and a smooth passage through this storm...and it is forecast to affect most of Georgia and points beyond as well.  There, I got to use the word "brunt" today...

Potential Hurricane Helene Slated to Hit Thursday Evening

Yes, recently this blog's output has been a bit porous, with me often skipping days.  Today, though, I thought it timely to discuss what is brewing weather-wise out in the western Caribbean: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, or PTC-9.  Now all the head honchos in the weather bureaus have it forecast to became Hurricane Helene and become a strong one before crashing into Florida's Big Bend area on Thursday evening before heading on to blanket Georgia.  The Governor has already had his hurricane prep press conference, and people in the affected areas...which extend far down the Florida Gulf Coast and inland to places like my Gainesville...to stock up on necessary items and prepare for power outages.  The maximum sustained winds at this Tuesday morning writing are still at sub-tropical storm force, so calling it a "potential tropical cyclone" is still technically applicable.  But it's no service to the general public to delay...like they did with two other systems in recent weeks...in giving it the next name, Helene, just because some ivy tower meteorologist wants to get anal about it all even though the winds may be strong enough: I've had it with this  "PTC" nonsense.  In any event, the storm in question is predicted to rapidly form and intensify in the next two days while picking up a lot of speed traveling across the Gulf of Mexico.  Hopefully, we won't be too directly affected by it in Gainesville, but then again they're not totally certain exactly where it's going to hit...

.....and now it's 11 AM, and they just named it Helene.  Winds are now at 45 mph and it's picking up speed, about to pass between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf...

Long Lull in Supposedly Active Hurricane Season Continues

As long as I'm sitting here at this computer, I might as well write something on the old blog.  Let's see...after all the commercials and non-weather-related features, I finally got to hear what The Weather Channel and Fox Weather had to say about the Tropics and hurricane season.  Looks like there are a couple of spots out in the Atlantic that might develop in the next week or two, but the main area is in the southwestern Caribbean off the Central American coast where they expect development over the next few days...and that's it.  Nothing at all like the extraordinarily active system they were predicting...and it doesn't hurt my feelings one bit...

Ernesto Latest Atlantic Tropical Storm, Not a Threat to US Mainland

 

In keeping up with the Atlantic hurricane season in '24, we now have the fifth named storm, Ernesto, currently (at this writing noon today) at tropical storm strength with sustained winds of 50 mph.  Although Ernesto is about to pass through the US and British Virgin Islands and enter the open Atlantic just north of Puerto Rico, unlike its predecessor Debby, it is destined to be a hurricane of the open Atlantic...only Bermuda is remotely threatened.  Of course, whenever there is a hurricane churning through the western Atlantic, coastal warnings will abound along the US east coast about high waves and rip current.  Ernesto is a sign that the 2024 hurricane season may be about to get into high gear...not a pleasant thought...

Tropical Storm Debby to Soon Become Hurricane, Hit Florida's Big Bend Region

Before all this recent travail and tragedy entered my hitherto happy-go-lucky existence, I had remarked on this blog that I might just follow this 2024 Atlantic hurricane season more closely than in past years.  I'm still sticking to that idea, and we have the fourth named storm, Debby, churning and intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as it makes its way to an early Monday morning landfall at my home state of Florida's swampy "Big Bend" region.  Sometime this evening Debby will gain hurricane status and may intensify further before landfall.  It's dropping a horrendous amount of rain and Gainesville is currently expected to get around possibly 8 inches of water, creating localized flooding threats.  Once Debby passes through Florida tomorrow, it is expected to veer eastward and, as it slows down, cause much flooding in southeastern Georgia before inflicting itself on South and North Carolina.   As for Gainesville, tonight and all day tomorrow will be the window for concern.  Right now at this posting around 5:17 PM, Debby has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph with the barometric pressure at 992 mb, traveling northward at 12 mph...

Beryl Poised to Hit Texas Coast

At this writing early Sunday evening, Beryl is still a strong tropical storm, predicted to reach minimal hurricane status just before it makes landfall on the Texas coast between Corpus Christi and Galveston early tomorrow morning.  I had written in a previous article that I intended to follow Atlantic tropical storms more this year after it was predicted to be an unusually strong season. Beryl earlier had been a Class 5 Hurricane, attaining at one point sustained 165 mph winds at its center, as it churned westward through the Caribbean.  In its wake Beryl has been blamed for 11 deaths so far, and it caused widespread damage in the West Indies, especially in the Grenadines and Jamaica, before hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and passing through it greatly weakened.  There are predictions of strong storm surge as the storm intensifies and eventually goes ashore.  And then there will be a lot of flooding as Beryl's remnant makes its way inland.  I had the TV on The Weather Channel all day and have enjoyed watching their meteorologists like Paul Goodloe and Molly McCollum...among others...presenting their live reports along various places on the Texas coast, Paul at Rockport and Molly in Corpus Christi...

Strong Hurricane Beryl Crosses West Indies

After seeing the early forecasts for an extremely active, dangerous 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, I decided to be more intentional on the blog with noting them.  Already in June we've had three named storms...Alberto hit Texas earlier with tropical-storm-force winds while causing some flooding in southeastern Texas.  Then Beryl, a trans-Atlantic storm, only a few days ago rapidly intensified into a strong hurricane...at this writing it's passing through the West Indian Grenadines...with Grenada on the south and St. Lucia and St. Vincent to the north...with a tightly wound center harboring maximum sustained winds of 150: a Category 4 storm unseen at this time of year...and its rapid intensification is unprecedented since records have been kept, both for the time of year and for its eastern Atlantic location.  Beryl's projected path currently has it crossing the Caribbean Sea and eventually hitting Mexico in the eastern Yucatan area, our cruise destination back in early March.  Meanwhile, while all the attention was on Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris was named just off the eastern Mexican coast around where Alberto had been, and then promptly moved inland and dissipated.  There's another disturbance, called Invest 96L, in Beryl's former path between it and Africa...it'll probably strengthen as well.  Since the waters down south in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are all very warm, wind shear and land itself may be the only factors that can weaken these potentially monster storms.  More later...  

First Named Atlantic Tropical Storm Hits Mexico, Affects Texas

Not that I was in any hurry for the first Atlantic tropical storm to be named this year, but I was a little surprised it took so long, considering how strong the meteorologists said the hurricane season would be in 2024 in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.  A weak-but-broad tropical system was just named Alberto and entered Mexico earlier today, immediately weakening to a depression.  But its larger impact was with strong rain that flooded much of the coastline into Texas...The Weather Channel even sent out one of their own, Molly, to stand out there in the middle of it all.  Normally I don't refer to named Atlantic storms on this blog unless they're threatening us in northern Florida...maybe I'll be more attentive this year.  There is right now a disturbance off Florida's east coast called "Invest 92L" that is predicted to gradually strengthen and pass through north Florida tomorrow...I doubt that it will get strong enough to be the second named tropical storm, but you never know...