Eyeing Tropics for Hurricane Threats

On this final day of September, we've been keeping an eye on the tropical disturbance developing just east of Florida and north of Cuba in the southern Bahamas.  The process has been pretty slow, but finally yesterday the weather big-shots got around to naming it as a tropical storm: Imelda.  Today Imelda intensified to minimal hurricane status, and after moving northward for several hours is now making an abrupt northeastern turn away from the mainland into the open seas of the Atlantic toward Bermuda, right behind its companion, Hurricane Humberto.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics we see no place of predicted storm development, which is important since I'm planning on traveling by ship through the Bahamas and Caribbean Sea during the first two weeks of October.  Let any potential storms wait until we're safely back home in port...

Keeping "Track" of Tropical Storm Erin

It looks as if this weekend the moment of truth will come out regarding what is destined to be Hurricane Erin, which is one of those Atlantic tropical storm systems that developed off the west African coast and traversed the high seas deep into our western hemisphere.  According to the projected various possible paths the storm could take, I'm not too concerned from my north-central Florida home location, but I'm not so sure I'd want to be on a cruise ship anytime in the near future that has the Bahamas and eastern Caribbean on its course.  My own cruise concern is projected for the first couple of weeks in October, when I'm afraid it might be a bit more touchy with the tropical storms during that period.  But we'll see. I'm guessing that Erin probably won't make landfall on the continent, but might threaten Bermuda and cause a lot of warnings about rip current along the Atlantic coast from Florida on northward. In any event, I guess this means we're finally in the middle of hurricane season.  Now that I'm retired and out of school for decades, I'm naturally hoping that they all stay away...

Start of 2025 Hurricane Season

Yesterday the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began, and the two main weather channels (The Weather Channel and FoxWeather) devoted much of their time to discussing this year's prospects regarding tropical storm systems and the damage that storms like Helene and Milton caused in 2024.  I remember as a kid in the 1960s getting a free hurricane plotting map that many stores...including Publix...offered.  Then I would eagerly wait for each day's newspaper (we got the Miami News)  to examine its (usually front-page) article about the status of ongoing tropical systems, usually with the accompanying maximum sustained winds and that all-important figure, its coordinates.  I'd duly plot out the new location and connect it to my previous plotting, making a gradual pathway that it was taking...I did this for years.  Nowadays, though, since you can pretty much check up on the different tropical storms online or on TV on a 24/7 basis, this painstaking plotting out of a hurricane's progress just isn't practiced anymore.  The last season I did this intentionally was in 1985 after Elena caused a scare in my Gainesville area after it abruptly shifted its path overnight to hover just off the coast at Cedar Key.  Now, of course, I can go back on Wikipedia and get a synopsis of each past season, along with a map showing the different named storms' trajectories.  For 2025, there will be no plotting in my house, but I'll keep in touch with the weather... 

New Tropical Storm Sara Named, In Western Caribbean

In keeping with my earlier declaration that I would keep up with named tropical storms in this 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season, I'm reporting today on the latest one, Sara.  It's just been named, after forming an identifiable circulation and developing sustained winds now at 40 mph in the far-western Caribbean Sea, just skirting the northern coast of Honduras, Sara is headed westward, destined to make landfall at the country of Belize and then on through the southeastern part of Mexico before emerging in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  There the various meteorological computer models have it strengthening and turning toward the northeast...that is, toward Florida.  Great, that's all we need, a fourth hurricane.  It's not all happening at once, though: it shouldn't be until early next week when we'll have some more definitive information on how strong Sara will get and where it will go... 

Rafael the Latest Storm in 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Rafael has been born in the western Caribbean and, this morning so far, carries 60 mph sustained winds as it strengthens into what possibly could be a Category Two hurricane after it enters the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.  That should concern anyone living near the Gulf Coast, but so far the predicted trajectory, a composite of numerous diverse meteorological projections, has it aimed toward the Louisiana coast.  Plus, the cooler waters in the northern Gulf should eventually weaken it.  Still, Rafael could be the source of a lot of rainfall toward the end of this week, even in Gainesville where I'm planning on entering a long-distance race on Sunday.  It seems this 2024 hurricane season that these storms seem bent on messing up my races: the sooner it ends the better... 

Nadine and Oscar Mark Dwindling Atlantic Hurricane Season

This morning we have the Weather Channel on the TV, and they were discussing...among other things...the current situation in the Tropics as the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final weeks.  The other day, at almost the same time and after many days of looking of two weak systems...one in the western Caribbean and the other north of Puerto Rico...they were both suddenly named tropical storms, Nadine and Oscar.  Nadine quickly landed in Central America at Belize and dumped its rains on that small country and further on in Mexico's eastern end.  Oscar briefly rapidly intensified in a Category One hurricane before hitting far eastern Cuba and weakened when hostile winds from the northwest (protecting us in Florida) tore into it, redirecting it away from us into the open Atlantic.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic potential tropical storm development is unlikely anytime soon.  That's okay with me: I and too many others have long grown tired of this tedious, destructive Atlantic season.  Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, Milton: no, that's way more than enough...

New Hurricane Milton Threatening Central Florida and Possibly Gainesville

Ever since Hurricane Helene passed through Florida and points north in late September...causing calamitous destruction and death, especially in North Carolina...the meteorologists have been pointed to a low-pressure area in Helene's general zone of origin in the western Caribbean.  The prognosis was always the same: 40% chance of development over a period of several days.  But a couple of days ago the message abruptly changed, as a Pacific tropical storm passed through Mexico into the far western Gulf of Mexico and formed the core of a dangerous new tropical disturbance.  It has since rapidly strengthened and been named Milton, at this writing a full-fledged hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.  Milton is predicted to reach Category 4 strength as it crosses the Gulf toward a rendezvous with the west coast of central Florida around Tampa.  Before hitting land, though, it is also expected to weaken a little.  But statewide we're already being saturated with much rain...more water in the ground is the last thing anyone needs.  Milton is expected to arrive on Wednesday and cut across the state, subjecting my Gainesville area once again to strong tropical storm winds and placing people and property in peril as well as almost certainly causing widespread power outages.  This storm is said to be smaller than Helene was...I guess I should be thankful for any good news...

Hurricane Helene's Brunt to Pass West of Gainesville This Evening

Hurricane Helene is passing by this evening, a near-miss to Gainesville...but a miss still the same.  Although schools, garbage pickup and different businesses are closing for either the whole day today or a part of it, my workplace at the post office is remaining open...at this writing I'll be off to work in an hour or so.  Although destined to miss the brunt of Helene's predicted Category Three winds at its landfall later today a few miles south of Tallahassee, we should still be under sustained tropical storm winds throughout the evening, eventually slackening during the wee early morning hours.  The rain level here shouldn't be all that bad...it's the wind and possible power outages that present the biggest concerns. Wishing you and yours safety and a smooth passage through this storm...and it is forecast to affect most of Georgia and points beyond as well.  There, I got to use the word "brunt" today...

Potential Hurricane Helene Slated to Hit Thursday Evening

Yes, recently this blog's output has been a bit porous, with me often skipping days.  Today, though, I thought it timely to discuss what is brewing weather-wise out in the western Caribbean: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, or PTC-9.  Now all the head honchos in the weather bureaus have it forecast to became Hurricane Helene and become a strong one before crashing into Florida's Big Bend area on Thursday evening before heading on to blanket Georgia.  The Governor has already had his hurricane prep press conference, and people in the affected areas...which extend far down the Florida Gulf Coast and inland to places like my Gainesville...to stock up on necessary items and prepare for power outages.  The maximum sustained winds at this Tuesday morning writing are still at sub-tropical storm force, so calling it a "potential tropical cyclone" is still technically applicable.  But it's no service to the general public to delay...like they did with two other systems in recent weeks...in giving it the next name, Helene, just because some ivy tower meteorologist wants to get anal about it all even though the winds may be strong enough: I've had it with this  "PTC" nonsense.  In any event, the storm in question is predicted to rapidly form and intensify in the next two days while picking up a lot of speed traveling across the Gulf of Mexico.  Hopefully, we won't be too directly affected by it in Gainesville, but then again they're not totally certain exactly where it's going to hit...

.....and now it's 11 AM, and they just named it Helene.  Winds are now at 45 mph and it's picking up speed, about to pass between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before entering the Gulf...

Storm System off Coast of Carolinas

This Monday morning we have a weather phenomenon that looks like a tropical storm and acts like a tropical storm...only the authorities have decided that it isn't one after all.  Potential Tropical Cyclone 8, also known as PTC8, is swirling like a tropical storm just off the coast of where South Carolina meets North Carolina.  At this writing it has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, well over the minimum threshold for giving a name to this system.  In any event, it is expected to crash ashore later today, already causing coastal flooding and storm surge.  Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Gordon, no harm to anyone except in a stray boat, has diminished to a tropical depression.  In northern Florida the past few weeks, it has been as if we were in a continual storm system...without the winds but with plenty of rain.  People just stopped mowing their lawns because of the high water level in the ground.  Yesterday I managed to mow our front and back yards but one section was nothing but a soggy, mucky mess.  Well, maybe that'll do for another month.  In the meantime, I'm happy we're not being besieged by hurricanes as predicted at the start of this Atlantic tropical storm season...but I am sick of this ongoing crappy weather, still the same...

"PTC-6" to Become Francine Soon Today

This cyclone at the western end of a protracted stationary summer weather front spanning the western Gulf of Mexico through northern Florida...arcing through Louisiana...is predicted to be named Tropical Storm Francine sometime today.  Its maximum sustained winds are already at 50 mph...tropical storm strength...and it is forecast to develop into a substantial hurricane before eventually making landfall along the western US Gulf Coast.  At this writing, they're just calling it "PTC-6", or "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six".  Doesn't matter, I'm just wondering which Weather Channel meteorologists will be stationed at the target locations like Corpus Christi and Houston...Paul Goodloe has already been out there in New Orleans "braving" the heavy rains there.  This 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, prediction to be a strong one with many named storms, has been pretty much on hold for the past few weeks with dust from the Sahara stymieing tropical storm development in the eastern Atlantic.  But maybe things are about to change...

Tropical Storm Debby to Soon Become Hurricane, Hit Florida's Big Bend Region

Before all this recent travail and tragedy entered my hitherto happy-go-lucky existence, I had remarked on this blog that I might just follow this 2024 Atlantic hurricane season more closely than in past years.  I'm still sticking to that idea, and we have the fourth named storm, Debby, churning and intensifying in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as it makes its way to an early Monday morning landfall at my home state of Florida's swampy "Big Bend" region.  Sometime this evening Debby will gain hurricane status and may intensify further before landfall.  It's dropping a horrendous amount of rain and Gainesville is currently expected to get around possibly 8 inches of water, creating localized flooding threats.  Once Debby passes through Florida tomorrow, it is expected to veer eastward and, as it slows down, cause much flooding in southeastern Georgia before inflicting itself on South and North Carolina.   As for Gainesville, tonight and all day tomorrow will be the window for concern.  Right now at this posting around 5:17 PM, Debby has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph with the barometric pressure at 992 mb, traveling northward at 12 mph...

Strong Hurricane Beryl Crosses West Indies

After seeing the early forecasts for an extremely active, dangerous 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, I decided to be more intentional on the blog with noting them.  Already in June we've had three named storms...Alberto hit Texas earlier with tropical-storm-force winds while causing some flooding in southeastern Texas.  Then Beryl, a trans-Atlantic storm, only a few days ago rapidly intensified into a strong hurricane...at this writing it's passing through the West Indian Grenadines...with Grenada on the south and St. Lucia and St. Vincent to the north...with a tightly wound center harboring maximum sustained winds of 150: a Category 4 storm unseen at this time of year...and its rapid intensification is unprecedented since records have been kept, both for the time of year and for its eastern Atlantic location.  Beryl's projected path currently has it crossing the Caribbean Sea and eventually hitting Mexico in the eastern Yucatan area, our cruise destination back in early March.  Meanwhile, while all the attention was on Beryl, Tropical Storm Chris was named just off the eastern Mexican coast around where Alberto had been, and then promptly moved inland and dissipated.  There's another disturbance, called Invest 96L, in Beryl's former path between it and Africa...it'll probably strengthen as well.  Since the waters down south in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are all very warm, wind shear and land itself may be the only factors that can weaken these potentially monster storms.  More later...  

First Named Atlantic Tropical Storm Hits Mexico, Affects Texas

Not that I was in any hurry for the first Atlantic tropical storm to be named this year, but I was a little surprised it took so long, considering how strong the meteorologists said the hurricane season would be in 2024 in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.  A weak-but-broad tropical system was just named Alberto and entered Mexico earlier today, immediately weakening to a depression.  But its larger impact was with strong rain that flooded much of the coastline into Texas...The Weather Channel even sent out one of their own, Molly, to stand out there in the middle of it all.  Normally I don't refer to named Atlantic storms on this blog unless they're threatening us in northern Florida...maybe I'll be more attentive this year.  There is right now a disturbance off Florida's east coast called "Invest 92L" that is predicted to gradually strengthen and pass through north Florida tomorrow...I doubt that it will get strong enough to be the second named tropical storm, but you never know...

Quote of the Week...from The Weather Company

 Most of the evidence is lined up to suggest a very active and very impactful hurricane season in 2024.      

                                                            ---The Weather Company

The Weather Company is the organization behind The Weather Channel, probably my favorite channel on television when it isn't running those annoying weekend series instead of giving me the current weather like it's supposed to.  Yesterday morning they mentioned that it was only 44 days until the Atlantic hurricane season begins in 2024, and the prediction is: 24 named tropical storms, 11 full-blown hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.  That's a very high set of figures, indeed, and will...if it happens...spill over into the second round of designated names (no more Alphas or Betas).  The given reason is twofold: the La Nina effect has returned with cool waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean...supposedly an indicator of a strong Atlantic storm season.  And the measured Atlantic waters this year have been much warmer than usual, creating a dangerous environment generally favorable for strong and multiple storm development.  None of this, naturally, is anything I want to be hearing.  We barely dodged a direct hit from Idalia last year, and I'm not looking forward to more of this trouble...

Idalia Threatens My Area in Northern Florida Wednesday

Looks sadly like north central Florida is about to be treated to a hurricane in a couple of days.  Idalia developed from an "Invest" system to a tropical depression to a tropical storm in the last few days, hovering around the western Caribbean Sea between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  But meteorologists predict it will pick up steam tomorrow and hit the western Florida coast around Cedar Key some time Wednesday morning, by then a hurricane with 90-100 mph sustained winds.  At least we're hoping it doesn't hang around the excessively warm northern Gulf of Mexico waters very long, else it will have time to strengthen to a more lethal level.  The question we here in the Gainesville vicinity are asking is whether Idalia will deal us a direct blow or only strong gusts.  And, naturally, there is also the matter of flash flooding.  No, I'm not looking forward to this...but supposedly by Thursday the storm's brunt will have passed our area and we'll be out inspecting the consequences...

This Recent Weather Sucks...More to Come

Although today's temperatures skyrocketed here in Gainesville today, I did enjoy the break from the storms and sporadically torrential rain we've been experiencing for well over a week.  But it was too good to be true: I checked my phone weather app and they're predicting more bad weather next week and the first few days of July, with this Wednesday for some reason giving us a break (although it's supposed to get up to 95 that day).  I'm quite accustomed to the summer pattern weather around here, where each day as the temperatures spike the blue sky gives way to puffy cumulus clouds...and then come the thunderheads bringing winds, thunder, lightning, rain and cool relief.  Doesn't seem as if we're getting this kind of weather, though...at least not yet.  Also, I didn't think we'd already have three named Atlantic tropical storm systems before even reaching July, but here we are: I wonder if it's too early yet to utter the words "hunker down" (with the AC set to max)...

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on Thursday

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is set to officially start this Thursday, June 1, but already there is a low-pressure disturbance...albeit not yet tropical in nature...in the Gulf of Mexico that is slated to pelt the central part of Florida this week with much rain and storms.  The forecasters say that this year should be close to normal in the quantity and intensity of named tropical storms and hurricanes.  But all it takes is one big hurricane coming right at your home area to make a monumental mess of things, and I'll be keeping an eye a little more on those daily forecasts and tropical outlooks on the TV weather stations.  Gainesville has been almost providentially spared the head-on wrath of a major storm, although in recent years it has been sideswiped on a number of occasions.  My major concern is a Category Four or Five hurricane strengthening in the Gulf and coming ashore around Cedar Key, heading straight for my hometown.  It's not a high probability for a single year, but over a span of decades the likelihood of that occurring is drastically increased.  But for now, all seems normal...

Tropical Storm Nicole Passing by Gainesville Today with Wind and Rain

Nicole, hopefully the final tropical storm to affect us in northern Florida, is currently passing through the central part of the state's peninsula on its way to the Gulf of Mexico where, at some point, it is predicted to make a turn toward the north and Georgia and the western Carolinas.  In the meantime, Gainesville is being subjected all day and night today to strong winds and tropical storm force gusts along with continual, strong and slanted rain.  I've been tuned in to The Weather Channel, which has been emphasizing Florida beaches...especially those sections like Vero Beach where the minimal hurricane, now a tropical storm, came ashore and places like Daytona Beach Shores which suffered much damage during Hurricane Ian a few weeks ago.  Still, other than the rain and annoying wind, Nicole should pass through our area without too much trouble...although I'm crossing my fingers about the power staying on in our area.  It developed a few days ago east of the Bahama and began drifting westward through Florida, sending Weather Channel meteorologists up and down the eastern Florida coast.  Melissa and I have stayed a number of times at Daytona Beach Shores and seeing the combination previous damage from Ian with the new storm's surge made a big impression on us.  Locally, Santa Fe College and the University of Florida are closed today and, of course, tomorrow is Veteran's Day.  Nicole is not a very strong storm as hurricanes go, certainly nowhere near in impact as Ian, but it does encompass a very large area and will take a while to pass on through...  

Ian Poses Threat to Florida as It Strengthens and Turns

After Tropical Storm/Hurricane Fiona flooded out much of southeastern Puerto Rico while the island suffered power loss after its center passed to the south, it struck the Dominican Republic straight on before passing through the Bahama and into the open Atlantic.  I get the fact that Puerto Rico is a part of the United States and definitely merits a lot of media coverage.  What I don't get is why I've heard virtually no information on how this storm affected the neighboring island of Hispaniola with its eastern nation directly struck.  Anyway, here in Florida we're now consumed with thinking about Ian, which for now is a weak tropical storm in the central Caribbean and heading west to pass south of Jamaica before turning more northward into western Cuba and, ultimately, the west coast of Florida.  In the process it's moving through very warm waters while the upper atmosphere is not expected to provide resistance to its strengthening.  So, Ian could very well become an extremely dangerous hurricane by the time it strikes the US mainland in Florida...the exact point of which they're uncertain.  But this morning...and it could change again...many of the computer projections have it passing very close if not over north central Florida where I live here in Gainesville.  So, I'm concerned about Ian, but not nearly as much as folks living on the west coast of Florida should be.  According to The Weather Channel's Greg Postel, the current "cone of uncertainty" for Ian over the state of Florida is very wide, meaning that meteorologists as yet do not know with a high degree of confidence exactly where it will make landfall.  They believe that it will make its impact here sometime next week around Wednesday and Thursday.  And almost as an afterthought, I heard one meteorologist mention that after passing through Florida, the storm may pose a direct threat to the Carolinas.  Guess I'll be toggling a bit between weather and sports on TV this weekend.  Time for The Weather Channel to send its reporters to the various Florida beaches, finally...