Optimism Bias

I was watching CNN yesterday morning when one of the guests, a human behavior expert, answered some questions as to why so many people were refusing the COVID-19 vaccine when it was presented for them.  One of the reasons, he postulated...besides fears among the population that the vaccines were developed so quickly and recently without the full, lifelong consequences of receiving them yet known...is that people generally go about their lives with a bias for optimism: they see themselves as healthy, probably not going to catch the virus, and if they do then it'll be like a common cold at worst.  This optimism bias became apparent a few days ago when so many placed their bets for the billion-dollar Powerball jackpot, quite a few taking the occasion to discuss what they would do with all that money when they "won". The odds of winning it are 1 in 292,201,338...virtually zero, yet folks will tell you there's still a "chance" of winning it.  Many of these same people will live lifestyles contributing to heart disease (1 in 6 chance of dying), cancer (1 in 7 chance), and chronic lower respiratory disease (1 in 27 chance).  So you live a healthy life, do you?  The odds of dying of a motor vehicle accident are 1 in 102...better not ever get in a car again if you think you have a chance at winning Powerball!  There's a chart unraveling all these statistics, from the website TitleMax...click here to view it.  So let's agree that we're still going to drive...and also liable to engage in some behaviors that contribute to a higher probability of dying.  The problem I've seen over the past year with people's attitudes toward this coronavirus pandemic is that they say the survival rate after you come down with it is over 98%: those are really not very good odds, especially considering that a much higher percentage of those afflicted suffer damage to their bodies that hasn't and may never heal.  But we're all optimists, right?  For me, I'm optimistically biased that my turn at the vaccine will come soon, we'll achieve some kind of "herd immunity" before long, and I'll get back to eating tasty, unhealthy foods indoors at my favorite restaurants...