Thursday, September 1, 2016

Hermine About to Strike North Florida Gulf Coast

I wrote about what is now called Tropical Storm Hermine last week in an article (here is a link to it [link]).  Back then it was a low pressure disturbance termed "Invest 99-7L".  At that time the meteorologists were giving it as much as an 80% chance of development as it made its way through the Bahamas, posing a threat to South Florida.  Those predictions never materialized, and Invest 99-7L drifted on through the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico, causing little more than some stormy weather in the Florida Keys.  But the area slowly began to develop and eventually was given "Tropical Depression 9" status.  It wasn't until yesterday, though, that its maximum sustained winds reached the point where it was named Tropical Storm Hermine.  And since then it has been rapidly organizing, strengthening, and enlarging, while my worst-case scenario from that earlier article of a tropical system switching directions in the Gulf and hitting Florida around Cedar Key has come true...

To be sure, the projected path of Hermine has shifted a bit to the north, with its center set to hit the Florida Gulf coast south of Tallahassee.  Still, this storm is assymetrical, with its worst weather...including strong thunderstorms, winds as high as 60 mph, heavy rains, and tornado threats...lying to its center's east.  And guess what?  That's exactly where we in Gainesville are!

By noon, Hermine had already strengthened to a powerful tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.  It is expected to be upgraded to Category 1 hurricane status by the time it makes landfall later today.  Since I don't live by the Gulf, I don't have to be concerned with storm surge, which by all accounts is going to be very dangerous...and is already making its effects felt there.  But the strong winds, heavy rain, and chance of tornados are going to be matters that we in the Gainesville area will have to deal with during the next 24 hours, in spite of apparently having "dodged the bullet" of a direct hurricane hit...