Upcoming Hurricane Season Forecast Uncertain

In yesterday's paper, an Associated Press article appeared reporting on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction about the upcoming hurricane season, "officially" starting on June 1.  According to NOAA, there will be nine to fifteen named tropical storms in the Atlantic area, with from four to eight reaching hurricane status.  The forecast is for an "average" season, based largely on a very uncertain prediction that the Pacific warming of waters known as El Niño, a known Atlantic storm inhibitor, will develop about two-three months from now.

Well, it's for certain that El Niño isn't there now: hurricane season hasn't even officially started and already in May we have two named tropical storms, quite a rarity.  But even if El Niño does come into play later, there is still the danger of a full-blown hurricane striking your area if you live anywhere near the coastline, from Nicaragua in the south all the way north into the Maritime Provinces of Canada.  Of course, the greatest concerns I have rest in Florida, which stands out on the map as a big target for these storms to hone in on.  But there's no point in worrying about it: if one comes my way, I'll deal with it then.  Maybe that sounds like a formula for disaster, but there's really not that much I would have to do to prepare for a coming storm anyway.

In the meantime, I am hoping that rain emanating from tropical storm Beryl will land on our area in the next couple of days and help to put out some fires in the Waldo area (about fifteen miles from me) that have sprung up lately and which are suspected of being the work of arsonist(s).

As R.E.M.'s Michael Stipe sang on the same-titled song on their Reveal album, "I'll take the rain." And I'll add to that, "and you can keep the wind!"