What Kind of Democracy Awaits Egypt?

As I watch the turmoil transpiring in Egypt from day to day, it leads me to ponder what kind of democracy this great nation would enjoy should the protesters of President Hosni Mubarak's 29-year autocratic rule succeed in overthrowing his regime and replacing it with a freely elected ruler and political party. I hear that Egypt's opposition to Mubarak is very fractured, without a single unifying organization (like South Africa's African National Congress was). If this continues, then I see two possible developments.

A splintered opposition would seem to work in the favor of Mubarak trying to prolong his power. After all, if I were him I might myself ask whether, just because a lot of people were demonstrating against me, that meant that the majority of Egyptians opposed my rule. I wouldn't necessarily automatically assume that my entire country had given up on me.

If Mubarak were to give up the reins of his power soon, then Egypt would be left with an assortment of disparate political factions that would have to work out their relationships with each other during a free electoral process. Ideally, the electoral outcome would resemble other democratic nations like the US, France, or Britain, where the opposing main parties are split enough in popularity among the general population so that one side can be thrown out every few years in favor of the other. Should Mubarak, however, decide to tough it out for as long as he can, then there is the greater probability that a more unified opposition, likely under the banner of a political party, will arise to oust him. If this happens, then I can see a future in a democratic Egypt dominated by one party that stays in power for decades, feeding off of its own corruption. I see examples of this having happened in places like Mexico and Zimbabwe.

What I don't see in Egypt is something like the Iranian Revolution of 1978, when a relatively sophisticated, secular society became dominated by hardline religious extremists. But then again, it is amazing, looking back at history, how such a seemingly rational people as the Germans suddenly allowed themselves to be transformed into a completely totalitarian society with the ascent of Hitler and the Nazis during the early 1930's. But on the other hand, one could argue that it was the combination of an economic catastrophe, national humiliation after a war, and a sense of betrayal leading to a propensity for scapegoating that led to Hitler's rise to power. All elements I am fearful to say may be present among the Egyptian people to varying degrees.

Whatever the case, I wish the best for Egypt. Not because of how this would help American foreign policy, but because I want these people to be able to be free to pursue their own happiness without being under the boot of a tyrant or a totalitarian ideology. To this end, I hope that Hosni Mubarak departs sooner than later.