Health Care Reform Bill, Prospects

Well, the health care reform bill has finally gotten into debate in the US Senate with the bare sixty votes needed. All of the Democrats (included the two Independents caucusing with them) voted for starting debate while all Republicans voted against it. This was to be expected. Now I'll predict what will happen next.

Now that debate on this bill, completely opposed by the GOP, has begun, several amendments will be put forth by Republican senators who have no intention whatsoever to vote for the bill, regardless whether or not their amendments are approved. And some of these amendments will be accepted. The task of the Democrats will be to alter the bill enough to give political cover to Independent Senator Joe Lieberman and more conservative Democrats Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson. This will be done by reinstating the "trigger" gimmick that would activate the public option should prices stay too high. But they'll call it something else and make it slightly different. In the end, cloture on the bill will pass with 60 or 61 votes, Maine Republican Olympia Snowe possibly returning with her support of it. And it will easily pass in this form in the final Senate vote.

The next step will see this legislation brought to conference, where the House and Senate versions will have to be reconciled into something of a compromise between them. Once that final version is produced, the two bodies will have to approve it. And if there is not a public option after conference, then there is a real danger of it not being approved in the House of Representatives, where support for a public option is stronger and more insistent.

Let's see how well I do with my prediction. I seem to be doing pretty well with my football prognosticating this year (well, the Ravens aren't doing as well I thought they would); maybe it will carry over into politics!