Thursday, March 21, 2019

Looking at 2020 US Senate Elections

The United States Senate with its 100 members, each state represented by 2 senators with 6-year terms, holds elections every 2 years to decide about one third of its seats...33 or 34. Each election cycle a specific "class" is put up for a vote: in 2018 it was Class I, in which the Democrats were defending 25 Senate seats and the Republicans only 8.  That's why, in a mid-term year in which the Democrats easily took back control of the House of Representatives, the Republicans were actually able to add 2 Senate seats to their majority.  But in 2020 Class II will be up for elections...and this time it will be the Republicans on the hot seat, having to defend 21 Senate seats as opposed to the Democrats' 12.  Also, appointed Arizona senator Martha McSally will be facing a Democratic challenger in 2020 to fill that seat until its Class III election in 2022...the original vacancy occurred with the death of John McCain.  So there are possibilities for the Democrats to wrest back Senate control after the 2020 elections if they play their cards right...then again, they thought they would win in 2016 and look how that turned out...

Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama looks extremely vulnerable in 2020...the Republicans should easily defeat him unless they nominate another spectacle like Roy Moore.  The other Democrats look reasonably safe in their seats...for now.  With the Republicans, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell usually faces a stiff reelection challenge in Kentucky but prevails...but will he decide to retire?  If so, then that seat is up in the air for either party to take.  Colorado's Cory Gardner is also a weak spot in the GOP's plans to keep Senate control...that state has been increasingly Democratic in recent years.  Maine's Susan Collins has been targeted by Democrats after her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court and Iowa's Jodi Ernst might be in a tough campaign should the Democrats nominate a strong candidate.  Bill Cassidy, David Perdue, and Thom Tillis...from Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina respectively, may escape defeat in 2020 if for no other reason than that the voting demographics in those three southern states tend to favor Republicans.  And longtime senators Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) and Pat Roberts (Kansas) have announced they will be retiring...once again it will be up to Democrats to nominate strong candidates in those usually-Republican states for their open elections in 2020...

With the nuclear option in place for all nominees, including the US Supreme Court, the party controlling the Senate...even by only one seat...possesses enormous political power.  So regardless who wins next year's election for president, the accompanying Senate elections will drastically affect our future.  By the way, Florida won't be holding any US Senate elections in 2020...

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