Tuesday's List: US Senate Seats Up for Election in 2018

Every two years, we Americans who actually bother to get out and vote elect one third of the United States Senate (about 33-34 seats). This November most American voters will have the opportunity to either reelect their senator, vote for the opponent, or in three races, pick a brand new one.  Although the Republicans currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the United States Senate over the Democrats (and their two Independent senators), this coming election sees a whopping 25 Democrats standing for reelection while the Republicans are trying to hold on to just 8 seats...a monumental challenge for the Democrats who face many difficult contests in states that Donald Trump handily won in 2016.  Besides these races there are special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi to determine whether the appointed senators, one from each party, will retain their seats.  Three Senate seats are open through retirement and are guaranteed a new senator: Arizona, Tennessee, and Utah...

The following list uses information from the great website RealClearPolitics, which I've found to be the best source of polling results.  They rated each of the Senate seats for the upcoming election as being "safe", "likely", "leaning", or "toss-up"...

DEMOCRATIC SEATS
"SAFE DEMOCRAT" (13 seats)
California: DIANNE FEINSTEIN
Connecticut: CHRIS MURPHY
Delaware: TOM CARPER
Hawaii: MAZIE HIRONO
Maine:  ANGUS KING (Independent)
Maryland: BEN CARDIN
Massachusetts: ELIZABETH WARREN
Minnesota: AMY KLOBUCHAR
New Mexico: MARTIN HEINRICH
New York: KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND
Rhode Island: SHELDON WHITEHOUSE
Vermont: BERNIE SANDERS (Independent)
Washington: MARIA CANTWELL

"LIKELY DEMOCRAT" (7 seats)
Michigan: DEBBIE STABENOW
Minnesota: TINA SMITH (special election)
New Jersey: BOB MENENDEZ
Ohio: SHERROD BROWN
Pennsylvania: BOB CASEY
Virginia: TIM KAINE
Wisconsin: TAMMY BALDWIN

"LEANING DEMOCRAT" ( 1 seat)
Montana: JON TESTER

"TOSS-UPS" (5 seats)
Florida: BILL NELSON
Indiana: JOE DONNELLY
Missouri: CLAIRE MCCASKILL
North Dakota: HEIDI HEITKAMP
West Virginia: JOE MANCHIN

REPUBLICAN SEATS
"SAFE REPUBLICAN" (4 seats)
Mississippi: ROGER WICKER
Nebraska: DEB FISCHER
Utah: open seat (Orrin Hatch retiring)
Wyoming: JOHN BARRASSO

"LIKELY REPUBLICAN" (1 seat)
Mississippi: CINDY HYDE-SMITH (special election)

"LEANING REPUBLICAN" (1 seat)
Texas: TED CRUZ

"TOSS-UPS" (3 seats)
Arizona: open seat (Jeff Flake retiring)
Nevada: DEAN HELLER
Tennessee: open seat (Bob Corker retiring)

So when you consider how many more Senate seats the Democrats have to defend than the Republicans, it is actually pretty amazing that of the most contested races...the ones that could go either way...Democrats have only five races like this while Republicans have three.  Of course, a lot can change between now and November.  But assuming for now that those races labeled "leaning", "likely", and "safe" go as predicted, we're left with eight toss-up contests that will ultimately determine the composition and control of the Senate.  For the Democrats to regain control, they will need to win at least seven of these eight elections, not impossible but highly improbable.  At this point in time I'm seeing a Republican pickup of two or three Senate seats, regardless what happens in the House of Representatives...some believe that the Democrats will regain control of that legislative body...