Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Senate Democrats in a Bind Over 2018 Election

The Democrats in the United States Senate have a problem: already at a 48 to 52-seat disadvantage with the majority Republicans and a new GOP president with a strong conservative agenda, they want to do what the Republicans did to Obama: obstruct, obstruct, obstruct.  But 2009 was a different year from 2017: out of the Senate seats up for election in 2018, 25 are currently held by Democrats...and only 8 by Republicans.  As many as 11 of them could well flip over to the Republicans, according to politico.com: Heitkamp-North Dakota, Tester-Montana, Manchin-West Virginia, Donnelly-Indiana, McCaskill-Missouri, Heller-Nevada, Brown-Ohio, Casey-Pennsylvania, Baldwin-Wisconsin, and Nelson-Florida...only Heller is from a state that went against Donald Trump in 2016.  And many of these are from solidly red states like North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri.  If current Florida governor Rick Scott decides to run against Bill Nelson in 2018, the odds for the latter's reelection will dwindle as well.  And the Republicans can win a filibuster-proof 60-seat supermajority if they hold their own seats and win over 8 of the 25 seats held by Democrats...

Now I realize that there is a chance that the Trump administration's actions over the next couple of years may backfire and his popularity nosedive among some of those who had voted for him, putting the Democrats strongly on the offensive, but I'm not counting on it.  Instead, if the Democrats in the Senate hold together as a caucus and prevent the president's agenda from being fully carried out...and that includes his nominees to various posts, including the Supreme Court...those aforementioned vulnerable candidates may have even more difficulty being reelected.  And that's why I'm of the persuasion that some of them will break with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and support more of the Republican issues and nominees than they would have under different circumstances.  Whether I'm right or not should soon become clear, after President Trump announces his choice next week to replace the late Justice Scalia for the U.S. Supreme Court...