What Kind of Hurricane Season Will We Have in 2016?

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1, although there has already been a full-blown hurricane: Alex, which haunted the northern Atlantic Ocean way back in January.  Meteorologists with an inside track on the data and their interpretation seem to be of the opinion that, due to their prediction of the El Niño effect giving way this summer and fall to La Niña, the number of named tropical storms as well as hurricanes will increase from last year's total.  That's not to say we'll have anything like 2005, when terrible storms like Katrina, Rita, and Wilma struck the American mainland...but tropical storm activity should pick up in the area.  Since 2005, not a single hurricane struck the state of Florida, while a few hit elsewhere: in Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina...and the northeastern coastal states.  I don't see this period of good luck for us Floridians continuing much longer, but if it's in the cards for us to be spared such an traumatic experience for yet another year...then deal me in!

The first names for tropical storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic for 2016 are: Alex (already used), Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, and Fiona.  Even if the number of storms is high, we need to keep in mind that most of them just run through their existence completely at sea, hundreds of miles from the mainland, posing threats only to islands (like Bermuda or the Azores), shipping...and careless east coast beach-goers and boating enthusiasts who ignore warnings about strong storm-generated waves and rip current...

I think we'll have a better grasp of what kind of season 2016 will be once the storms coming off the western African coast cross the Atlantic and approach the West Indies.  In years conducive to hurricane development, they continue more or less to strengthen until they hit the mainland or pass over mountainous terrain in some islands like Hispaniola or Cuba.  On the other hand, these storms have recently had a tendency to run into strong weather systems that shear the storms and diminish them into relatively harmless low pressure zones.  I'm hoping that the latter scenario prevails this time around...

It will also be interesting to see where the predominant source of hurricane development occurs.  I've already mentioned the eastern Atlantic, but also some of the worst storms in our recent memory (like Camille in 1969 and Wilma in 2005) developed in the warm waters of the western Caribbean and then moved northward.  I'm keeping my eye on both regions...