GOP in 2010: 1994 or 1964?

There has been a great deal of comparison lately between the political situation nowadays in the first (and now second) year of a new Democratic administration, along with a Congress run by that party. Tough issues, most notably health care reform, are once again being addressed, and the Republican opposition, as before, has been fierce. In the 1994 congressional elections, the GOP, under the banner of representative Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America" swept itself into the legislative majority of both houses. In this fall's elections, there are similar hopes (or fears, depending on which side you are on). But there is an added element to this year's election that may complicate the Republicans' aspirations this year.

The Tea Party movement, an extreme right-wing political movement based partially on corporate-fed right-wing talk radio and television, partially on sour grapes on the part of the losers of the 2008 election, and partially on the paranoid, racist, and anti-Semitic conspiracist/militia movement that has been festering in this country for the past couple of decades, threatens to knock off more moderate Republicans in their party's primary elections. Even John McCain may be defeated in his senatorial reelection bid, not by the Democrats but by his own party. Should teabaggers run directly against Democrats in the general election, the Dems should have the upper hand for most of the contests. This should help to offset other Democratic losses caused by their declining general popularity over the past year and a half.

We have already witnessed an event of this nature, when a New York congressional seat held by the Republicans for decades went Democratic because a teabagger independent candidate siphoned off votes from the official GOP candidate. If the Republicans become more hard-line right wing, the scenario may be more like that of 1964, when Barry Goldwater's conservative wing took over the party and drove the more moderate and liberal elements to the sidelines. And that year, the GOP suffered one of its worst electoral defeats ever.

In 1994, the Democrats were caught off guard by the Republican surge. I remember the astonishment as the election results poured in that year. This year, they have plenty of advance warning. Prepare yourself for a political media blitz (from both sides), the likes of which have never before been witnessed!