Don't Panic Yet, Democrats

It looks as if the Democrats are in a desperate stage of their run as a national ruling party. In the overwhelmingly Democratic state of Massachusetts, a conservative Republican defeated their nominee to take over the late Edward Kennedy's Senate seat, currently held by temporary appointee Paul Kirk. The Democrats have also recently lost governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, both states that they formerly controlled (with the incumbent governor of NJ losing his race for reelection). President Obama's approval ratings continue to slide as the country seems to be coming on board with the opposition's continual portrayal of him as being some kind of foreign socialist who is wrecking the economy into spiraling debt, taking over private industry, "killing Grandma" with health care reform, and letting all the terrorists in with open arms. As negatively as I've seen the previous president, George W. Bush, portrayed, it has come nothing close to how Obama has been treated. And I very keenly remember that, in spite of claims (which I disagree with) on the part of many that Bush stole the 2000 election, he was treated for the most part in his first two years by the opposition Democrats with the utmost civility and respect. But with Obama we get "You lie!" coming from the GOP side of Congress as he addresses it in formal session.

Will this year be a replay of 1994, when in Bill Clinton's only second year as a sitting president the country radically shifted the balance of power by placing the Republicans in control of both houses of Congress? Some say "yes" and point to the fact that in both instances the drive to reform the health care system has been a major factor in the Democrats' polling misfortunes. But consider the following:

The 1994 campaign and election took everyone by surprise because it wasn't until later in the campaign that it became apparent that the Republicans were going to make substantial gains. And then few would have guessed that those gains would put them in the majority as it did. Two years later, though, Clinton easily won reelection! These two facts point to my conclusion: if the Democrats can sense trouble early enough, they can dig themselves out of it by adopting different postures and creating new images of themselves. This certainly has worked in the past.

The health care reform quagmire still continues, but one way or another it will end in the not-to-distant future. In the meantime, Obama is learning from the elections and polls, changing his emphasis to jobs and the economy. He is adopting a more populist manner that is reminiscent of his presidential campaign. Smart guy. Obama also needs to continue with his strong foreign policy and push an image of himself being tough on terrorism. I think he is already strong on both counts, but many apparently think he is soft, for some reason.

So no, I don't think the Democrats are doomed in 2010 after all. There is a good chance that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will lose his reelection bid and that seats in places like North Dakota and even Illinois may turn Republican. In the House, the Democrats will probably lose some seats as well. But I don't think that this will be enough to overturn their majorities in either house, not only still allowing them to set the agenda on the floor, but also to control committees (including the crucial Senate Judiciary Committee).

So if you're a Democrat, now is not the time to panic. Besides, Obama (or "Not-McCain" if you will) is going to be in there for quite a while longer!

One big concern, though: If the Democrats in Congress pursue immigration reform this year and try to ram through a bill with little or no support across the aisle, start worrying, Democrats. And prepare for celebrations in November, Republicans!