Gator Hoops Tourney Prospects

The University of Florida men's basketball team is in danger of being shut out of the NCAA Championship tournament for the second year in a row after finishing their regular season at 22-9 and Southeastern Conference play at 9-7. Not bad on the surface, but their overall record was enhanced by scheduling smaller colleges that they were relatively assured of beating. And the SEC as a conference doesn't do much better in the national rankings. Only two teams, LSU and Tennessee, are reasonably assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament. A third team from the conference will probably also be added, but a fourth is highly questionable this year. And South Carolina is widely regarded as the "third" team, Florida "fourth", and Auburn "fifth". The UF Gators still have a chance to pass ahead of South Carolina, though, because the SEC tournament is beginning today. And depending on the outcome of that tournament, Florida may either find itself back in the NCAA tournament in which it won the national championship in 2006 and 2007 or it may be relegated to playing in the "second fiddle" National Invitation Tournament, in which it did well last year.

Here is how I see Florida possibly making it to the NCAA tournament this year, based on the outcome of the SEC tournament:

(A) If Florida wins the conference tournament outright, they automatically qualify for the NCAA. And they can potentially do this, if they play up to the level that they have demonstrated at different times during the season.

(B) If Florida doesn't win the SEC tournament then three things have to happen:

[1] Either Tennessee or LSU must win the SEC tournament, keeping another conference team from becoming the third team to go to the NCAA tourney.

[2] Florida needs to outlast South Carolina in the tournament, preferably beating them head on.

[3] Florida needs to avoid being outlasted by Auburn.

Even if the Florida Gators fulfill the conditions for (B), that still doesn't guarantee that they'd be selected. But I think that it would put them ahead of other conference teams competing for that important "third" selection.

Well, the fun starts today. Win or lose, I've enjoyed following the Gators this year. They'd have nothing to be ashamed of if they went back to the NIT this year again instead of the NCAA Championship tournament. But of course, I would be very disappointed if that happened, nevertheless.