Hurricane Fay Danger

Although, at this writing it’s just “tropical storm” Fay, all of the forecasters are predicting it to strengthen over the next three days, first as it moves in a WNW direction skirting southern Cuba, and then once it turns more northerly after leaving Cuba for Florida. The projected path has Fay striking Florida, either in the southern part of the peninsula on Tuesday or further up the coast later in the day.

Living in Gainesville, I’m concerned that the center of the “cone of probability” has Fay hitting Gainesville early on Wednesday as a minimal hurricane (or a very strong tropical storm). Of course, four years ago, the same types of projections had Hurricane Charley hitting us directly, too (which it didn’t). But all of the state of Florida is concerned about what direction Fay will ultimately take and how strong it will get. If it hits Florida early, Fay is more likely to be a weaker hurricane, but that is not guaranteed. The further west it travels before turning more in a northeastward direction will give it more of an opportunity to strengthen, making wherever it does strike more vulnerable. Back in 2004, Charley was pretty much in the same spot off the southwestern coast of Florida where Fay is predicted to be late Monday/early Tuesday, but it suddenly strengthened into a very strong hurricane and unexpectedly changed its course to the east, resulting in a devastating hit in the Punta Gorda/Fort Myers area. The situation with Fay is just as uncertain.

As for me, hurricane season may have officially begun on June 1, but the “real” season is finally in full swing with Fay. This storm is particularly frustrating for us since we’re driving to Jacksonville Tuesday to help our son to get himself moved in as a freshman in college there. But regularly living through hurricane threats is part of what it means to be a Floridian, and I’m planning to go on with my business regardless, just as most everyone else is going to as well! If Fay is coming directly at me at a dangerous level of intensity, of course I’m going to make the necessary preparations. But I’m not putting my life on hold or holding my breath for it, either!